Implications of Generation Efficiencies and Supply Chain Leaks for the Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Natural Gas-Fired Electricity in the United States.

Uncertainties in supply chain emissions raise questions about the benefits of natural gas as a bridge fuel, but recent efficiency improvements in gas-fired electricity generation remain overlooked. Our comprehensive analysis of supply chain infrastructure and electricity generation across the United States informs spatially and temporally resolved estimates of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions. Results show decreasing life cycle emissions over each year examined: 629, 574, and 525 kg CO eq MWh in 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively. Electricity generation contributed 86% of emissions or greater for each year. Despite concerns over uncertain methane leaks, efficiency improvements make it much more likely that natural gas electricity has an unambiguous greenhouse gas benefit relative to coal. Methane leaks would have to be 4.4 times the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) value in 2015 to reverse these benefits over 20-year time horizons. With retiring coal plants and scrutinized supply chain emissions, our results show that natural gas can provide a lower emissions option to coal in an increasingly decarbonized power sector.