Department of Sociology, The City College of New York, New York, NY, USA.
Demography. 2022 Apr 1;59(2):433-459. doi: 10.1215/00703370-9737156.
Patterns of household mobility across neighborhoods reproduce patterns of racial segregation at the metropolitan level. Substantial literature across the social sciences has explored the scale and predictors of household mobility as well as changes in metropolitan residential segregation over time. This study unifies these two strands of inquiry by connecting the sorting of households across neighborhoods to aggregate changes in segregation levels. Using discrete choice models of intrametropolitan mobility and restricted decennial census and American Community Survey data for 1960-2014, I model the correlates of household mobility and identify the counterfactual scenarios under which lower segregation levels can be achieved. The results show that even though the mobility flows of the White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations across census tracts have become more similar over time, U.S. metropolitan areas are far from experiencing large drops in segregation.
家庭在社区间的流动模式复制了大都市层面的种族隔离模式。社会科学的大量文献已经探讨了家庭流动性的规模和预测因素，以及随着时间的推移大都市居住隔离的变化。这项研究通过将家庭在社区间的分类与隔离程度的总体变化联系起来，将这两个研究线索统一起来。利用城市内迁移的离散选择模型和 1960-2014 年的十年一次人口普查和美国社区调查数据，我对家庭流动性的相关因素进行了建模，并确定了可以实现较低隔离程度的反事实情景。结果表明，尽管白种人、黑种人、西班牙裔和亚洲人在普查区内的流动模式随着时间的推移变得更加相似，但美国大都市地区远未经历隔离程度的大幅下降。
