Peng Chao, Da Fang, Wu Junhong, Li Guangxu
School of Economics and Management, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China.
Procedia Comput Sci. 2022;199:354-360. doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2022.01.043. Epub 2022 Feb 3.
Under the influence of COVID-19, the global economic and social development is facing great challenges. With the increase of government financial pressure and the decrease of debt paying ability, the problem of debt risk of local governments in China is attracting wide attention. In order to measure the level of China's local government debt risk under the influence of COVID-19, this paper takes China's Sichuan Province as an example, collects the core indicators data of measuring local government debt risk in 2017-2020 years, and uses AHP-TOPSIS method to make a comprehensive analysis of the local government debt risk situation in different periods before and after COVID-19. It is found that the local government debt risk in Sichuan Province is generally controllable. However, influenced by COVID-19, in 2020, the overall level of local government debt risk in Sichuan province expanded by 22.1% compared with 2019, this is mainly due to the further expansion of debt scale and slower economic growth. This paper suggests that the Chinese government should speed up the construction of comprehensive early warning and supervision system of local government debt risk, and prevent and resolve the debt risk of local government in advance.
在新冠肺炎疫情的影响下，全球经济社会发展面临巨大挑战。随着政府财政压力增大以及偿债能力下降，中国地方政府债务风险问题受到广泛关注。为测度新冠肺炎疫情影响下中国地方政府债务风险水平，本文以中国四川省为例，收集2017—2020年测度地方政府债务风险的核心指标数据，运用层次分析法-逼近理想解排序法（AHP-TOPSIS法）对新冠肺炎疫情前后不同时期四川省地方政府债务风险状况进行综合分析。研究发现，四川省地方政府债务风险总体可控。然而，受新冠肺炎疫情影响，2020年四川省地方政府债务风险总体水平较2019年扩大了22.1%，这主要是由于债务规模进一步扩大以及经济增长放缓所致。本文建议，中国政府应加快构建地方政府债务风险综合预警与监管体系，提前防范和化解地方政府债务风险。
