Lancaster Phillip A, Larson Robert L
Beef Cattle Institute, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA.
Animals (Basel). 2022 Feb 5;12(3):385. doi: 10.3390/ani12030385.
Grazing cow-calf production systems account for 60 to 70% of the greenhouse gas emissions of U.S. beef production. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the importance of management strategies (cow maintenance energy requirements, reproductive efficiency, forage nutritive value, and forage yield) on the sustainability of cow-calf production systems using a sensitivity analysis in a production systems model. The Beef Cattle Systems Model was used to simulate a cow-calf production system in the Kansas Flint Hills using Angus genetics over a 24 year time period. The model was modified to create variation among cow herds in the base net energy for the maintenance requirement (NEm_Req), postpartum interval (PPI), grazed forage digestibility (Forage_TDN), and forage yield per hectare (Forage_Yield). The model was run for 1000 iterations/herds of a 100-cow herd. A stepwise regression analysis in conjunction with standardized regression analysis was used to identify important predictors of an indicator of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity, dry matter intake per kilogram weaned, and two indicators of economic sustainability, winter feed use and returns over variable costs, using R statistical software. The most important predictor of DMI per kilogram weaned was calf weaning weight followed by NEm_Req, whereas returns over variable costs were primarily influenced by kilograms weaned per cow exposed and total purchased feed (supplement + winter feed), which were strongly influenced by NEm_Req and Forage_Yield, respectively. In conclusion, decreasing the net energy required for maintenance improved both economic and environmental sustainability, and increasing forage yield and length of the grazing season improved economic sustainability, implying that these strategies should be primary targets to enhance the sustainability of cow-calf production systems.
放牧式母牛-犊牛生产系统占美国牛肉生产温室气体排放量的60%至70%。本分析的目的是通过在生产系统模型中进行敏感性分析,评估管理策略(母牛维持能量需求、繁殖效率、饲草营养价值和饲草产量)对母牛-犊牛生产系统可持续性的重要性。肉牛系统模型用于模拟堪萨斯弗林特山地区使用安格斯牛品种的一个24年时间段的母牛-犊牛生产系统。对该模型进行了修改,以在基础维持净能量需求(NEm_Req)、产后间隔(PPI)、放牧饲草消化率(饲草TDN)和每公顷饲草产量(饲草产量)方面,在牛群之间产生差异。该模型针对100头牛的牛群进行了1000次迭代运行。使用R统计软件,结合标准化回归分析进行逐步回归分析,以确定温室气体(GHG)排放强度指标、每千克断奶体重的干物质摄入量以及经济可持续性的两个指标(冬季饲料使用和可变成本回报率)的重要预测因子。每千克断奶体重的干物质摄入量的最重要预测因子是犊牛断奶体重,其次是NEm_Req,而可变成本回报率主要受每头受胎母牛的断奶千克数和总购买饲料(补充料+冬季饲料)的影响,它们分别受NEm_Req和饲草产量的强烈影响。总之,降低维持所需的净能量可提高经济和环境可持续性,增加饲草产量和延长放牧季节可提高经济可持续性,这意味着这些策略应成为增强母牛-犊牛生产系统可持续性的主要目标。