Mbeya University of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science and Technical Education, P.O. Box 131, Mbeya, Tanzania.
Department of Mathematics & Computational Sciences, University of Zimbabwe, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, Zimbabwe.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2022 Feb 7;2022:5118382. doi: 10.1155/2022/5118382. eCollection 2022.
In this paper, a nonlinear fractional-order chikungunya disease model that incorporates asymptomatic infectious individuals is proposed and analyzed. The main interest of this work is to investigate the role of memory effects on the dynamics of chikungunya. Qualitative analysis of the model's equilibria showed that there exists a threshold quantity which governs persistence and extinction of the disease. Model parameters were estimated based on the 2015 weekly reported cases in Colombia. The Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method was used to numerically solve the proposed model. We investigated the role of asymptomatic infectious patients on short- and long-term dynamics of the diseases. We also determined threshold levels for the efficacy of preventative strategies that results in effective management of the disease. We believe that our model can provide invaluable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of chikungunya transmission and analyze its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts.
本文提出并分析了一个包含无症状感染者的非线性分数阶基孔肯雅病模型。这项工作的主要目的是研究记忆效应对基孔肯雅病动力学的影响。模型平衡点的定性分析表明，存在一个阈值，它控制着疾病的持续和灭绝。根据 2015 年哥伦比亚每周报告的病例，对模型参数进行了估计。采用 Adams-Bashforth-Moulton 方法对所提出的模型进行数值求解。我们研究了无症状感染者对疾病短期和长期动态的作用。我们还确定了预防策略有效性的阈值水平，这将有效地管理疾病。我们相信，我们的模型可以为公共卫生当局提供宝贵的见解，以预测基孔肯雅病传播的效果，并分析其潜在因素，指导新的控制工作。
