Zhang Yichi, Wang Qiao, Tian Tian, Yang Yuan
College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Business School of Wuchang University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Resour Policy. 2022 Jun;76:102584. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102584. Epub 2022 Feb 15.
The recent Covid-19 pandemic outbreak caused a global economic recession and promoted uncertainty in the natural resources. Also, this uncertainty is linked with the demand and supply of natural resources such as oil and natural gas, which is a substantial factor of industrial and economic activities. Declining natural resource demands substantially drop such activities that adversely affect economic performance. This attracts the attention of policy-makers and governors to efficiently tackle the issue. This study investigates the association of natural resources volatility, global economic performance, and public administration in earlier and Covid-19 pandemic peak periods. The study covers the period from 1990 to 2020 for the global data. The empirical findings of the cointegration test suggested that the variables are cointegrated. This study utilizes three long-run estimators, i.e., fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR). The empirical findings suggest that natural resources volatility (TNR) negatively and significantly affect global economic performance. While natural gas rents, oil rents, and public administration quality (QPA) promote global economic performance. Besides, the results also indicate that the interaction of QPA and TNR enhances economic performance. This study demonstrates that volatility in natural resources is detrimental to global economic performance. However, improved public administrative quality could play a significant role in transforming the negative influence. of natural resources volatility into a positive effect. The findings are robust as validated by Robust regression. This study provides some practical policy insights for the governors and policy-makers to tackle the mentioned issues.
近期新冠疫情的爆发导致了全球经济衰退，并加剧了自然资源领域的不确定性。此外，这种不确定性与石油和天然气等自然资源的供需相关联，而这是工业和经济活动的一个重要因素。自然资源需求的下降大幅减少了此类活动，对经济表现产生了不利影响。这引起了政策制定者和管理者的关注，促使他们有效应对这一问题。本研究考察了在早期以及新冠疫情高峰期自然资源波动、全球经济表现和公共管理之间的关联。该研究涵盖了1990年至2020年的全球数据。协整检验的实证结果表明这些变量是协整的。本研究采用了三种长期估计方法，即完全修正普通最小二乘法（FMOLS）、动态OLS（DOLS）和典型协整回归（CCR）。实证结果表明，自然资源波动（TNR）对全球经济表现有负面且显著的影响。而天然气租金、石油租金和公共管理质量（QPA）则促进全球经济表现。此外，结果还表明QPA与TNR的相互作用提高了经济表现。本研究表明，自然资源波动对全球经济表现有害。然而，提高公共管理质量可以在将自然资源波动的负面影响转化为积极影响方面发挥重要作用。通过稳健回归验证，这些发现是稳健的。本研究为管理者和政策制定者应对上述问题提供了一些实用的政策见解。
