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中国经济表现与自然资源商品价格波动:来自中国新冠疫情期间的证据

China economic performance and natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from China in COVID-19.

作者信息

Deng Ming

机构信息

School of Economics, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, PR China.

出版信息

Resour Policy. 2022 Mar;75:102525. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102525. Epub 2021 Dec 27.

Abstract

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the world has faced many challenges, including the 2003 oil price hike, the 2007-08 global financial crisis, among others. While the recent Covid-19 outbreak slowdown economic performance and create uncertainty in natural resources commodity prices, which brought the attention of academic research. Current study examined economic performance and natural resource commodity price volatility in China over the period 1990-2020. Also, this study considers the role of renewable energy investment, renewable electricity output, and green finance in the pre and post Covid-19 pandemic periods. For empirical investigation, this study employed dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR). The outcomes reveal that the first-differenced stationary variables are all cointegrated in the long run. While these estimators confirmed that natural resources commodity price volatility negatively affects economic performance. Besides, the results validate the positive impact of renewable energy investment, renewable electricity output, and green finance on economic performance. The results are found robust and consistent, justified by Robust regression. These findings could have essential economic, natural resources, and energy implications for policymakers, governors, and researchers.

摘要

自21世纪初以来,世界面临着诸多挑战,包括2003年的油价上涨、2007 - 2008年的全球金融危机等。近期的新冠疫情爆发使经济表现放缓,并给自然资源商品价格带来不确定性,这引发了学术研究的关注。当前研究考察了1990 - 2020年期间中国的经济表现和自然资源商品价格波动情况。此外,本研究还考虑了可再生能源投资、可再生电力产出以及绿色金融在新冠疫情大流行前后时期的作用。为进行实证研究,本研究采用了动态普通最小二乘法(DOLS)、完全修正普通最小二乘法(FMOLS)和典型协整回归(CCR)。结果显示,一阶差分平稳变量在长期内都是协整的。这些估计方法证实,自然资源商品价格波动对经济表现有负面影响。此外,结果验证了可再生能源投资、可再生电力产出和绿色金融对经济表现的积极影响。通过稳健回归发现结果稳健且一致。这些发现可能对政策制定者、政府官员和研究人员具有重要的经济、自然资源和能源方面的启示。

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