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年轻人在医学上对新冠病毒具有免疫力,但在劳动力市场上却很脆弱:来自韩国的证据。

Young people are medically invulnerable to COVID-19 but vulnerable in the labor market: Korean evidence.

作者信息

Park Saejung, Cho Joonmo

机构信息

School of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Postal address: 32413, 53 Myeongryun-Dong 3-ga, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 110-745, South Korea.

出版信息

Health Econ Rev. 2022 Feb 22;12(1):16. doi: 10.1186/s13561-022-00360-4.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 and its preventive measures affect not only the state of public health but also the economy. The economic impact of COVID-19 varies depending on age, and it is argued that young people have experienced the greatest negative impacts.

METHODS

This study was an analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in January 2020 on the Korean labor market. Large-scale data from the Economically Active Population Survey from January to June of 2018 to 2020 were used when analyzing the impacts of COVID-19 on unemployment and the economically inactive population by age group. Through this study's empirical analysis, we examined for this study whether the COVID-19 outbreak has affected the labor market differently based on age. By analyzing the interaction terms of the young person's status and the time of the COVID-19 outbreak, we determined the impacts of the outbreak on economic inactivity among young people, as well as examining the reasons for these differential effects.

RESULTS

Compared with the middle-aged or older group, young people were more likely to become economically inactive than unemployed. Our empirical results using multinomial logistic regression revealed several reasons for the increase in economic inactivity, such as discouragement during the job search, childcare, housework, and studying at an institution, along with other determinants of economic inactivity. Young people showed a significantly higher relative probability of becoming economically inactive or discouraged job seekers following the COVID-19 outbreak when compared to other age groups. In addition, through the analysis of the possibility of employment, the young people responded negatively to the possibility of employment in the future compared to the middle-aged after COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Young people in South Korea possess little career experience in the labor market and tend to be seeking work rather than working. Because economic activities are likely to shrink structurally during a pandemic, it is necessary to empirically determine the damage incurred by people who are vulnerable in the labor markets, such as the younger population which was the subject of this study. Accordingly, future policy directions are suggested for the prevention of a rapid increase in the rate of economic inactivity among the younger population during the pandemic.

摘要

背景

新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)及其预防措施不仅影响公共卫生状况,还影响经济。COVID-19对经济的影响因年龄而异,有人认为年轻人受到的负面影响最大。

方法

本研究分析了2020年1月COVID-19疫情对韩国劳动力市场的影响。在按年龄组分析COVID-19对失业和非经济活动人口的影响时,使用了2018年1月至2020年6月经济活动人口调查的大规模数据。通过本研究的实证分析,我们考察了COVID-19疫情是否根据年龄对劳动力市场产生了不同影响。通过分析年轻人的状态与COVID-19疫情发生时间的交互项,我们确定了疫情对年轻人经济不活动的影响,并研究了这些差异影响的原因。

结果

与中年或老年群体相比,年轻人更有可能变得经济不活跃而非失业。我们使用多项逻辑回归的实证结果揭示了经济不活动增加的几个原因,如求职过程中的气馁、照顾孩子、家务劳动、在机构学习,以及其他经济不活动的决定因素。与其他年龄组相比,年轻人在COVID-19疫情后变得经济不活跃或气馁求职者的相对概率显著更高。此外,通过对就业可能性的分析,与COVID-19疫情后的中年人相比,年轻人对未来就业可能性的反应更为消极。

结论

韩国年轻人在劳动力市场上几乎没有职业经验,往往处于求职而非工作状态。由于在大流行期间经济活动可能会在结构上萎缩,有必要实证确定劳动力市场中弱势群体所遭受损失,比如本研究中的年轻人群体。因此,建议了未来的政策方向,以防止在大流行期间年轻人群体中经济不活动率的迅速上升。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/249d/8864785/fa0a852bba05/13561_2022_360_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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