Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padua, Italy.
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Nature. 2020 Aug;584(7821):425-429. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2488-1. Epub 2020 Jun 30.
On 21 February 2020, a resident of the municipality of Vo', a small town near Padua (Italy), died of pneumonia due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. This was the first coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19)-related death detected in Italy since the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei province. In response, the regional authorities imposed the lockdown of the whole municipality for 14 days. Here we collected information on the demography, clinical presentation, hospitalization, contact network and the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in nasopharyngeal swabs for 85.9% and 71.5% of the population of Vo' at two consecutive time points. From the first survey, which was conducted around the time the town lockdown started, we found a prevalence of infection of 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1-3.3%). From the second survey, which was conducted at the end of the lockdown, we found a prevalence of 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.8%). Notably, 42.5% (95% CI: 31.5-54.6%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic (that is, did not have symptoms at the time of swab testing and did not develop symptoms afterwards). The mean serial interval was 7.2 days (95% CI: 5.9-9.6). We found no statistically significant difference in the viral load of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infections (P = 0.62 and 0.74 for E and RdRp genes, respectively, exact Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test). This study sheds light on the frequency of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, their infectivity (as measured by the viral load) and provides insights into its transmission dynamics and the efficacy of the implemented control measures.
2020 年 2 月 21 日,意大利帕多瓦市附近小镇沃镇的一名居民死于严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)感染引起的肺炎。这是自湖北省武汉市检测到 SARS-CoV-2 以来,意大利首例检测到的与冠状病毒病 19(COVID-19)相关的死亡病例。为此,地方当局对整个市镇实施了为期 14 天的封锁。在这里,我们收集了在两个连续时间点对沃镇 85.9%和 71.5%的人口的人口统计学、临床表现、住院、接触网络以及 SARS-CoV-2 感染在鼻咽拭子中的存在情况的信息。从第一次调查(大约在城镇封锁开始时进行)中,我们发现感染率为 2.6%(95%置信区间(CI):2.1-3.3%)。从第二次调查(在封锁结束时进行)中,我们发现感染率为 1.2%(95%CI:0.8-1.8%)。值得注意的是,在两次调查中检测到的确诊 SARS-CoV-2 感染中,42.5%(95%CI:31.5-54.6%)为无症状感染(即在拭子检测时无症状,且之后未出现症状)。平均序列间隔为 7.2 天(95%CI:5.9-9.6)。我们发现有症状感染与无症状感染的病毒载量之间没有统计学上的显著差异(E 和 RdRp 基因的 P 值分别为 0.62 和 0.74,确切的 Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney 检验)。这项研究阐明了无症状 SARS-CoV-2 感染的频率、其传染性(以病毒载量衡量),并深入了解其传播动态和所实施的控制措施的效果。