School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, China.
Department of Gardens, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming, China.
Waste Manag Res. 2022 Sep;40(9):1424-1432. doi: 10.1177/0734242X221080097. Epub 2022 Feb 25.
With the development of the electric vehicle (EV), vehicle end-of-life (EOL) management has become a significant challenge. This study sets two EV sales scenarios (low and high), compares the impact of two battery replacement methods (buying a new vehicle or replacing the battery) on future EOL EV production, and predicts the difference in the amount of EOL EV battery production under two probability functions (normal and Weibull's distributions). The results show that when the EV power battery is retired and the vehicle owner chooses to buy a new vehicle, the predicted scrap quantity under low sales and high sales (HS) scenarios in 2030 is 4.3 and 5.3 million, respectively. Replacing the battery and continuing to use the vehicle will mean fewer EOL vehicles are generated. Considering the construction of an EOL EV battery recycling management system in China is still in the exploratory period, it is necessary to encourage vehicle owners to replace the battery and continue to use the vehicle. Under a HS scenario, the predicted number of EOL EV batteries in 2030 is 3.8-7.4 million. In the next 10 years, the issue of EV recycling should be raised to the same level as the issue of EV popularisation.
随着电动汽车（EV）的发展，车辆报废（EOL）管理已成为一个重大挑战。本研究设定了两种电动汽车销售情景（低和高），比较了两种电池更换方法（购买新车或更换电池）对未来 EOL 电动汽车生产的影响，并预测了在两种概率函数（正态和威布尔分布）下 EOL 电动汽车电池生产数量的差异。结果表明，当电动汽车动力电池退役且车主选择购买新车时，2030 年低销售和高销售（HS）情景下的预测报废量分别为 430 万辆和 530 万辆。更换电池并继续使用车辆将意味着生成的 EOL 车辆更少。考虑到中国 EOL 电动汽车电池回收管理系统的建设仍处于探索阶段，有必要鼓励车主更换电池并继续使用车辆。在 HS 情景下，2030 年预测的 EOL 电动汽车电池数量为 380 万至 740 万。在未来 10 年内，应将电动汽车回收问题提升到与电动汽车普及问题同等重要的高度。
