How large of a grant size is appropriate? Evidence from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Under the current universal trend towards larger grant sizes in research funding systems, we focus on how large of a grant size is appropriate. We study the directional returns to scale (RTS) to assess whether current grant sizes are the most productive. We take the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) as an example and select three samples of physics, geography and management for an empirical study. We find that the optimal input direction and the most productive grant size scale is different for the three disciplines; based on the current grant size, physics should not expand the grant size and team size input, geography should further increase the grant size to improve performance and management should further expand the team size rather than the grant size. In this paper, we demonstrate a new method to calculate the optimal direction, which is the lowest rate of congestion, according to the characteristics of the General Program. Based on these results, we also calculate the most productive scale size. This method has certain value for project management.