Aagaard Kevin J, Lonsdorf Eric V, Thogmartin Wayne E
Colorado Parks and Wildlife Fort Collins Colorado USA.
Institute on the Environment University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USA.
Ecol Evol. 2022 Feb 17;12(2):e8617. doi: 10.1002/ece3.8617. eCollection 2022 Feb.
We developed a continental energetics-based model of daily mallard () movement during the non-breeding period (September to May) to predict year-specific migration and overwinter occurrence. The model approximates movements and stopovers as functions of metabolism and weather, in terms of temperature and frozen precipitation (i.e., snow). The model is a Markov process operating at the population level and is parameterized through a review of literature. We applied the model to 62 years of daily weather data for the non-breeding period. The average proportion of available habitat decreased as weather severity increased, with mortality decreasing as the proportion of available habitat increased. The most commonly used locations during the course of the non-breeding period were generally consistent across years, with the most inter-annual variation present in the overwintering area. Our model revealed that the distribution of mallards on the landscape changed more dramatically when the variation in daily available habitat was greater. The main routes for avian migration in North America were predicted by our simulations: the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific flyways. Our model predicted an average of 77.4% survivorship for the non-breeding period across all years (range = 76.4%-78.4%), with lowest survivorship during autumn (90.5 ± 1.4%), intermediate survivorship in winter (91.8 ± 0.7%), and greatest survivorship in spring (93.6 ± 1.1%). We provide the parameters necessary for exploration within and among other taxa to leverage the generalizability of this migration model to a broader expanse of bird species, and across a range of climate change and land use/land cover change scenarios.
我们开发了一种基于大陆能量学的绿头鸭在非繁殖期（9月至次年5月）每日活动模型，以预测特定年份的迁徙和越冬情况。该模型根据新陈代谢和天气（温度和冻结降水，即降雪）来估算活动和中途停留情况。该模型是在种群水平上运行的马尔可夫过程，并通过文献综述进行参数化。我们将该模型应用于62年的非繁殖期每日天气数据。随着天气严峻程度增加，可用栖息地的平均比例下降，而死亡率随着可用栖息地比例的增加而降低。在非繁殖期过程中最常用的地点多年来总体一致，越冬区域的年际变化最大。我们的模型显示，当日可用栖息地变化更大时，绿头鸭在景观中的分布变化更为显著。我们的模拟预测了北美鸟类迁徙的主要路线：大西洋、密西西比、中部和太平洋飞行路线。我们的模型预测，所有年份非繁殖期的平均存活率为77.4%（范围为76.4%-78.4%），秋季存活率最低（90.5±1.4%），冬季存活率中等（91.8±0.7%），春季存活率最高（93.6±1.1%）。我们提供了在其他分类群内部和之间进行探索所需的参数，以利用这种迁徙模型对更广泛鸟类物种的通用性，并跨越一系列气候变化和土地利用/土地覆盖变化情景。
