Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.
Sci Rep. 2022 Feb 28;12(1):3288. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07310-4.
It remains unclear how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay from their ocean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) to landfall intensity (LI), yet this stage is of fundamental importance governing the socio-economic impact of TCs. Here we show that TCs decay on average by 25% from LMI to LI. A logistic decay model of energy production by ocean enthalpy input and surface dissipation by frictional drag, can physically connect the LMI to LI. The logistic model fits the observed intensity decay as well as an empirically exponential decay does, but with a clear physical foundation. The distance between locations of LMI and TC landfall is found to dominate the variability of the decay from the LMI to LI, whereas environmental conditions are generally less important. A major TC at landfall typically has a very large LMI close to land. The LMI depends on the heating by ocean warming, but the LMI location is also important to future landfall TC intensity changes which are of socio-economic importance.
目前仍不清楚热带气旋（TC）从其海洋生命期最大强度（LMI）衰减到登陆强度（LI）的过程，然而这一阶段对于TC 的社会经济影响至关重要。本文研究表明，TC 从 LMI 到 LI 平均衰减 25%。海洋焓输入产生能量的逻辑衰减模型和摩擦阻力引起的表面耗散，可以将 LMI 与 LI 物理连接起来。逻辑模型不仅可以很好地拟合观测到的强度衰减，还可以很好地拟合经验指数衰减，但具有明确的物理基础。研究发现，LMI 位置和 TC 登陆位置之间的距离是决定 LMI 到 LI 衰减的主要因素，而环境条件通常不太重要。登陆时的大型 TC 通常在接近陆地的地方具有非常大的 LMI。LMI 取决于海洋变暖的加热作用，但 LMI 位置对于未来登陆 TC 强度变化也很重要，这对于社会经济意义重大。
