Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.
Sci Rep. 2022 Mar 28;12(1):5236. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-09287-6.
In this study, we show that the number of annual global tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls with major landfall intensity (LI ≥ 50 m s) has nearly doubled from 1982 to 2020. The lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of global major landfalling TCs has been increasing by 0.8 m s per decade (p < 0.05), but this significance of intensity change disappears at landfall (0.3 m s per decade, p = 0.69). The lack of a significant LI trend is caused by the much larger variance of LI than that of LMI in all basins and explains why a significant count change of TCs with major intensity at landfall has only now emerged. Basin-wide TC trends of intensity and spatial distribution have been reported, but this long-term major TC landfall count change may be the most socio-economic significant.
在这项研究中，我们表明，1982 年至 2020 年期间，全球热带气旋（TC）具有重大登陆强度（LI≥50m/s）的年登陆次数几乎翻了一番。全球主要登陆 TC 的终生最大强度（LMI）每十年增加 0.8m/s（p<0.05），但这种强度变化的显著性在登陆时消失（每十年 0.3m/s，p=0.69）。LI 没有显著趋势的原因是，与 LMI 相比，所有海域的 LI 方差都大得多，这解释了为什么现在才出现具有重大强度的登陆 TC 的数量发生显著变化。已经报道了强度和空间分布的全海域 TC 趋势，但这种长期的重大 TC 登陆次数变化可能是最具社会经济意义的。
