Institute of Environmental Ecology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, No 8, Da Yang Fang, Beiyuan, Anwai, Chaoyang District, 100012, Beijing, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2022 Mar 1;194(3):233. doi: 10.1007/s10661-021-09736-1.
Identifying the danger and expressing the indeterminacy of forfeiting perching space of species induced by rapid climate warming is crucial for biodiversity risk management under future changes in climate conditions. The scenarios of climate shift named the representative concentration pathways, the categorizing technique with regard to fuzzy-set, and Monte Carlo scheme was employed to survey the indeterminacy and the danger of forfeiting perching space caused by climate warming for 115 bryophytes in China. For the deterministic scenarios of climate shift, the richness of 115 bryophytes improved in several areas in north-eastern China, while it dropped in some areas in southern, eastern, south-eastern, and central China. In addition, for the deterministic scheme of altering climatic state, the count for bryophytes with the proportion of contracting the present areal range as less than 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% was belike 34-38, 19-38, 24-35, 9-19, and 4-9, separately; the count of bryophytes with the ratio of the occupying entire areal range as over 80%, 60-80%, and less than 20% was roughly 97-109, 4-14, and 2-8, separately. For the scenarios of randomly change in climate state, the number of bryophytes with a various proportion of forfeiting the present perching space dropped with enhancing the possibility; with the likelihood beyond 0.6, the count of bryophytes with forfeiting present perching space as less than 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80% and high than 80% of the present areal range was approximately 7-14, 2-10, 0-7, 2-9, and 13-20, separately; the number of bryophytes with the ratio of occupying the whole areal range as less than 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% was more or less 1-3, 0-3, 1-5, 1-3, and 38-44, separately. Roughly 48 bryophytes would face the risk of extinction from climate warming, including endemic and non-endemic species. Forfeiting perching space induced by climate warming would cause variations in species composition and the disappearance of some ecological functions associated with these bryophytes. The inconstancy of forfeiting areal range caused by climate warming should be incorporated into the policy-making of conservation bryophytes for adaptation of climate warming.
确定物种因快速气候变暖而丧失栖息空间的危险，并表达其不确定性，对于管理未来气候变化条件下的生物多样性风险至关重要。本研究采用代表性浓度途径的气候转移情景、模糊集分类技术和蒙特卡罗方案，调查了中国 115 种苔藓植物因气候变暖而丧失栖息空间的不确定性和危险。对于气候转移的确定性情景，东北部的一些地区 115 种苔藓植物的丰富度增加，而南部、东部、东南部和中部的一些地区则减少。此外，对于气候状态变化的确定性方案，现有分布范围缩小比例小于 20%、20-40%、40-60%、60-80%和大于 80%的苔藓植物的数量分别为 34-38、19-38、24-35、9-19 和 4-9；现有分布范围缩小比例大于 80%、60-80%和小于 20%的苔藓植物的数量分别为 97-109、4-14 和 2-8。对于气候状态随机变化的情景，随着可能性的增加，具有不同比例丧失现有栖息空间的苔藓植物数量减少；当可能性超过 0.6 时，现有栖息空间丧失比例小于 20%、20-40%、40-60%、60-80%和大于 80%的苔藓植物数量分别约为 7-14、2-10、0-7、2-9 和 13-20；现有分布范围比例大于 80%、60-80%和小于 20%的苔藓植物数量分别为 1-3、0-3、1-5、1-3 和 38-44。大约有 48 种苔藓植物将面临气候变暖导致灭绝的风险，包括特有种和非特有种。气候变暖导致的栖息空间丧失会导致物种组成的变化，以及与这些苔藓植物相关的一些生态功能的消失。应将气候变暖引起的丧失面积的不确定性纳入保护苔藓植物适应气候变暖的决策制定中。
