Han Yixuan, Li Nan, Mu Hailin, Guo Rong, Yao Rongkang, Shao Zhihao
Key Laboratory of Ocean Energy Utilization and Energy Conservation of Ministry of Education, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jul;29(33):50790-50803. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19030-3. Epub 2022 Mar 3.
One of the challenges that China currently faces is how to reduce the emissions of water pollution. However, the study of water pollution convergence has a certain policy significance for controlling the emissions of water pollution. This article firstly uses chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia nitrogen (NH-N) as indicators of water pollution. Due to the obvious spillover effect of water in space, this article adds a spatial effect to the convergence model. Based on panel data of 30 provinces and cities from 2006 to 2017, this article uses a dynamic spatial Dubin model to analyze the convergence of water pollution emission intensity to address the endogenous problem in the model. The empirical results of this paper show that there is absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence in the intensity of water pollution emissions. The spatial autocorrelation test shows that there is a positive spatial autocorrelation of water pollution emissions, which means that the pollution emissions in neighboring areas will affect the emissions in the local area. The industrial structure has a certain promoting effect on the emission of water pollution, which means that adjusting the industrial structure and alleviating the structure of the secondary industry is the trend of future development. Economic growth can curb the emissions of water pollution. The influences of urbanization and foreign investment on the emissions of the two pollutants are inconsistent, and policies can be formulated according to local conditions in the future.
中国当前面临的挑战之一是如何减少水污染排放。然而，水污染收敛性研究对于控制水污染排放具有一定的政策意义。本文首先采用化学需氧量（COD）和氨氮（NH-N）作为水污染指标。由于水在空间上具有明显的溢出效应，本文在收敛模型中加入了空间效应。基于2006年至2017年30个省市的面板数据，本文采用动态空间杜宾模型分析水污染排放强度的收敛性，以解决模型中的内生性问题。本文的实证结果表明，水污染排放强度存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛。空间自相关检验表明，水污染排放存在正的空间自相关，这意味着邻近地区的污染排放会影响当地的排放。产业结构对水污染排放有一定的促进作用，这意味着调整产业结构、缓解第二产业结构是未来发展的趋势。经济增长能够抑制水污染排放。城市化和外商投资对两种污染物排放的影响不一致，未来可因地制宜制定政策。
