International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy.
PLoS One. 2022 Mar 4;17(3):e0264418. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264418. eCollection 2022.
The introduction and analysis of a simple idealized model enables basic insights into how military characteristics and recruitment strategies affect the dynamics of armed conflicts, even in the complex case of three or more fighting groups. In particular, the model shows when never ending wars (stalemates) are possible and how initial conditions and interventions influence a conflict's fate. The analysis points out that defensive recruitment policies aimed at compensating for suffered losses lead to conflicts with simple dynamics, while attack groups sensitive to the damages they inflict onto their enemies can give rise to conflicts with turbulent behaviours. Since non-governmental groups often follow attack strategies, the conclusion is that the evolution of conflicts involving groups of that kind can be expected to be difficult to forecast.
引入并分析一个简单理想化模型，可以让我们初步了解军事特征和招募策略如何影响武装冲突的动态，即使在涉及三个或更多战斗团体的复杂情况下也是如此。特别是，该模型表明了何时可能出现无休止的战争（僵局），以及初始条件和干预如何影响冲突的命运。分析指出，旨在弥补损失的防御性招募政策会导致冲突动态变得简单，而对自身造成的损害敏感的攻击团体则可能导致冲突行为动荡。由于非政府团体通常采取攻击策略，因此可以预计，涉及此类团体的冲突的演变难以预测。
