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基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价的战略性新兴产业布局:以四川省为例。

Strategic emerging industry layout based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation: A case study of Sichuan province.

机构信息

School of Statistics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China.

Western Business School, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2022 Mar 4;17(3):e0264578. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264578. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

In the 12th Five-Year Plan period, Sichuan province has selected strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, biology, energy conservation and environmental protection. However, its strategic emerging industries are still in the stage of cultivation and development, and there are some problems such as low industrial agglomeration and obvious industrial restructuring. In essence, this is because the focus of the development of strategic emerging industries is not clear enough, and the location advantages are not fully utilized to select the most suitable strategic emerging industries for the development of the region. This paper constructs a regional strategic emerging industries selection decision model, applies ARCGIS to study the spatial distribution of strategic emerging industries in Sichuan province, and uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to solve the priority of developing strategic emerging industries. Conclusions: Firstly, Sichuan province should give priority to the development of new generation information technology industry and new energy vehicle industry, then high-end equipment manufacturing industry, energy-saving and environmental protection industry and new energy industry, and finally biological industry and new material industry. The larger the coefficient of influence is, the higher the comprehensive score is, while the larger the coefficient of sensitivity is, the lower the comprehensive score is. Secondly, the number of enterprises in the new-generation information technology industry and the new energy vehicle industry is still not dominant in Sichuan province. Finally, the study found that the current development of strategic emerging industries in Sichuan province is extremely unbalanced in various regions, and the phenomenon of competition and reconstruction is obvious.

摘要

在“十二五”期间,四川省选择了新一代信息技术、新能源、高端装备制造、新材料、生物、节能环保等战略性新兴产业。然而,其战略性新兴产业仍处于培育和发展阶段,存在产业集聚度低、产业结构调整明显等问题。从本质上讲,这是因为发展战略性新兴产业的重点不够明确,没有充分利用区位优势来选择最适合本地区发展的战略性新兴产业。本文构建了区域战略性新兴产业选择决策模型,运用 ARCGIS 研究四川省战略性新兴产业的空间分布,并采用模糊综合评价法(FCEM)和层次分析法(AHP)解决发展战略性新兴产业的优先顺序。结论:首先,四川省应优先发展新一代信息技术产业和新能源汽车产业,其次是高端装备制造业、节能环保产业和新能源产业,最后是生物产业和新材料产业。影响力系数越大,综合得分越高,而灵敏度系数越大,综合得分越低。其次,四川省新一代信息技术产业和新能源汽车产业的企业数量仍不占优势。最后,研究发现,四川省战略性新兴产业的发展在各地区极不平衡,竞争和重组现象明显。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1736/8896735/92f8bb0bc192/pone.0264578.g001.jpg

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