CNR -- National Research Council of Italy, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Via Real Collegio, N. 30, 10024, Moncalieri, TO, Italy.
Environ Res. 2022 Aug;211:113062. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113062. Epub 2022 Mar 5.
New Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), an infectious illness that has generated a pandemic crisis worldwide. One of the fundamental questions in science and society is how SARS-CoV-2 has been originated to design best practices directed to prevent and/or to cope with future hazardous pathogens. The study confronts this question here developing a meta-analysis, which endeavors to explain, whenever possible, unknown sources of the SARS-CoV-2. Findings suggest that the natural spillover of novel viral agents that generate more than 6.00 M deaths worldwide in about two years (such as, SARS-CoV-2 from February 2020 to March 2022) has a remote probability of occurrence (using an analogy with the probability of natural disasters generating a lot of fatalities), whereas science advances on hazardous viral agents and consequential lab accident have a (higher) probability of occurrence (about 13-20% like in manifold lab accidents). The findings of this meta-analysis suggest the vital role of improving the technical guidelines of biosafety at all levels in laboratories during the development of scientific research of experimental virology on hazardous pathogens to minimize risks of pandemic threats in environment and human society.
新型严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）引起 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19），这是一种传染病，在全球范围内引发了大流行危机。科学界和社会的基本问题之一是 SARS-CoV-2 是如何产生的，以便制定最佳实践来预防和/或应对未来的有害病原体。本研究通过进行荟萃分析来解决这个问题，该分析努力解释 SARS-CoV-2 的未知来源。研究结果表明，在大约两年内（例如，2020 年 2 月至 2022 年 3 月的 SARS-CoV-2），造成全球超过 600 万人死亡的新型病毒自然溢出的可能性较小（与造成大量死亡的自然灾害的可能性类似），而科学对有害病毒的研究和随之而来的实验室事故的可能性较大（约 13-20%，如在多次实验室事故中）。这项荟萃分析的结果表明，在开展有关危险病原体的实验病毒学科学研究时，必须改进实验室各个层面的生物安全技术指南，以最大程度地降低环境和人类社会中流行威胁的风险。
