Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), COVID-19 Response Team, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Mar 9;17(3):e0264179. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264179. eCollection 2022.
As of March 2021, three COVID-19 vaccines had been authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for use in the United States. Each has substantial efficacy in preventing COVID-19. However, as efficacy from trials was <100% for all three vaccines, disease in vaccinated people is expected to occur. We created a spreadsheet-based tool to estimate the number of symptomatic COVID-19 cases among vaccinated people (vaccine breakthrough infections) based on published vaccine efficacy (VE) data, percent of the population that has been fully vaccinated, and average number of COVID-19 cases reported per day. We estimate that approximately 199,000 symptomatic vaccine breakthrough infections (95% CI: ~183,000-214,000 cases) occurred in the United States during January-July 2021 among >156 million fully vaccinated people. With high SARS-CoV-2 transmission and increasing numbers of people vaccinated in the United States, vaccine breakthrough infections will continue to accumulate. Understanding expectations regarding number of vaccine breakthrough infections enables accurate public health messaging to help ensure that the occurrence of such cases does not negatively affect vaccine perceptions, confidence, and uptake.
截至 2021 年 3 月，美国食品和药物管理局 (FDA) 已批准三种 COVID-19 疫苗在美国使用。这三种疫苗都具有显著的预防 COVID-19 的功效。然而，由于所有三种疫苗的试验有效性都低于 100%，预计接种疫苗的人群中仍会出现疾病。我们创建了一个基于电子表格的工具，根据已发表的疫苗有效性 (VE) 数据、已完全接种疫苗人群的百分比以及每天报告的 COVID-19 病例平均数，来估算接种疫苗人群中出现的有症状 COVID-19 病例数（疫苗突破性感染）。我们估计，2021 年 1 月至 7 月期间，在美国超过 1.56 亿完全接种疫苗的人群中，有大约 19.9 万例有症状的疫苗突破性感染（95%CI：~18.3 万至 21.4 万例）。随着美国 SARS-CoV-2 传播率的升高和接种人数的增加，疫苗突破性感染将继续增加。了解疫苗突破性感染的预期数量，可以为准确的公共卫生信息传递提供帮助，以确保此类病例的发生不会对疫苗的认知、信心和接种产生负面影响。
