Sun Ying, Zhang Xuebin, Ding Yihui, Chen Deliang, Qin Dahe, Zhai Panmao
National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, Beijing 100081, China.
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto M3H 5T4, Canada.
Natl Sci Rev. 2021 Jun 29;9(3):nwab113. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwab113. eCollection 2022 Mar.
China's climate has been warming since the 1950s, with surface air temperature increasing at a rate higher than the global average. Changes in climate have exerted substantial impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems and human health. Attributing past changes to causes provides a scientific foundation for national and international climate policies. Here, we review recent progress in attributing the observed climate changes over past decades in China. Anthropogenic forcings, dominated by greenhouse gas emissions, are the main drivers for observed increases in mean and extreme temperatures. Evidence of the effect of anthropogenic forcings on precipitation is emerging. Human influence has increased the probability of extreme heat events, and has likely changed the occurrence probabilities for some heavy precipitation events. The way a specific attribution question is posed and the conditions under which the question is addressed present persistent challenges for appropriately communicating attribution results to non-specialists.
自20世纪50年代以来，中国气候一直在变暖，地表气温上升速度高于全球平均水平。气候变化对水资源、农业、生态系统和人类健康产生了重大影响。将过去的变化归因于各种原因，为国家和国际气候政策提供了科学依据。在此，我们回顾了中国过去几十年观测到的气候变化归因方面的最新进展。以温室气体排放为主的人为强迫是观测到的平均气温和极端气温上升的主要驱动因素。人为强迫对降水影响的证据正在显现。人类影响增加了极端高温事件的发生概率，并且可能改变了一些强降水事件的发生概率。提出特定归因问题的方式以及解决该问题的条件，在向非专业人士恰当地传达归因结果方面一直存在挑战。
