Kuhn Johann, Olié Valérie, Grave Clémence, Le Strat Yann, Bonaldi Christophe, Joly Pierre
Department of Support, Data Processing and Analysis, French National Public Health Agency, Saint-Maurice, France.
Department of Chronic Diseases and Injuries, French National Public Health Agency, Saint-Maurice, France.
Clin Epidemiol. 2022 Mar 5;14:255-264. doi: 10.2147/CLEP.S340031. eCollection 2022.
In France, myocardial infarction (MI) was the second leading cause of years of life lost in 2019. Estimating the burden of MI in future years could help policymakers and other actors anticipate care and prevention needs and guide them in public health decision-making.
Using data from the French hospital discharge database from 2007 to 2015 (n = 519,400), demographic data, and an illness-death model, we projected incidence, prevalence, number of prevalent cases and mean age of incident MI cases in France. The methodology took into account the age-cohort effect on MI incidence, mortality of healthy and diseased subjects, and the time since disease onset.
Projections highlighted an increase in MI prevalence in men between 2015 and 2035 from 2.52% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): [2.48-2.56]) in 2015 to 4.02% ([3.92-4.12]) in 2035, and from 0.85% ([0.83-0.87]) to 1.44% ([1.38-1.50]) in women. This corresponds to an increase of 365,000 cases between 2015 and 2035 (+81.1%) for men and 146,000 cases for women (+88.0%). The difference in the mean age of incident cases between men and women decreased from 9.52 in 2015 to 5.49 years in 2035.
Our projections forecast an increase in MI prevalence between 2015 and 2035 in men and women, especially in relatively younger women. Using statistical models such as ours can help assess the impact of prevention campaigns for the main cardiovascular disease risk factors on the future MI prevalence.
在法国，心肌梗死（MI）是2019年寿命损失年数的第二大主要原因。估计未来几年心肌梗死的负担有助于政策制定者和其他相关方预测护理和预防需求，并指导他们进行公共卫生决策。
利用2007年至2015年法国医院出院数据库的数据（n = 519,400）、人口统计数据以及疾病死亡模型，我们预测了法国心肌梗死的发病率、患病率、现患病例数和新发心肌梗死病例的平均年龄。该方法考虑了年龄队列对心肌梗死发病率的影响、健康和患病受试者的死亡率以及疾病发病后的时间。
预测结果显示，2015年至2035年期间，男性心肌梗死患病率从2015年的2.52%（95%不确定区间（UI）：[2.48 - 2.56]）增至2035年的4.02%（[3.92 - 4.12]），女性则从0.85%（[0.83 - 0.87]）增至1.44%（[1.38 - 1.50]）。这相当于2015年至2035年期间男性病例增加365,000例（+81.1%），女性增加146,000例（+88.0%）。男性和女性新发病例的平均年龄差异从2015年的9.52岁降至2035年的5.49岁。
我们的预测显示，2015年至2035年期间男性和女性的心肌梗死患病率均会上升，尤其是相对年轻的女性。使用我们这样的统计模型有助于评估针对主要心血管疾病风险因素的预防运动对未来心肌梗死患病率的影响。
