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巴基斯坦农村沼气非采用决策:多项逻辑回归模型的应用。

Non-adoption decision of biogas in rural Pakistan: use of multinomial logit model.

机构信息

Department of Economics, Government College Women University, Faisalabad, Pakistan.

Department of Business Administration, Sukkur IBA University, Sukkur, Pakistan.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jul;29(35):53884-53905. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19539-7. Epub 2022 Mar 16.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-19539-7
PMID:35296995
Abstract

In 2009, Pakistan introduced a subsidized biogas program to disseminate clean and affordable energy in rural areas. However, the adoption rate did not appear as expected. Therefore, the present study aims to examine the determinants behind the non-adoption of biogas digesters. Detailed information via a structured questionnaire was obtained from biogas adopters and non-adopters, and analyses were performed in two levels. Initially, the study used the multinomial logit regression to elicit the non-adoption behavior. Results depicted family size, risk aversion, cook education (women), kitchen (inside the home), home structure, and non-availability of inputs as significant factors behind non-adoption. Detailed analysis also revealed that the factors like the age of household head, area of the house, cook education (women), location of the kitchen (inside the home), and the distance of the house to the bus stop (minutes) lead towards the potential adoption of biogas. The study also investigated the potential factors behind the long-term sustainability of biogas digesters with the help of binary logit. The results depicted that the kitchen's location (inside the house), cook education (women), training, and subsidy significantly and positively impact the biogas plant's probability of being functional. Based on these results, the study suggested that policymakers increase women's education in rural areas, provide a subsidy to reduce costs and risk, and arrange training for adopters.

摘要

2009 年,巴基斯坦推出了一项补贴沼气计划,旨在农村地区传播清洁和负担得起的能源。然而,采用率似乎并没有达到预期。因此,本研究旨在探讨沼气沼气池未被采用的决定因素。通过结构化问卷从沼气采用者和未采用者那里获得了详细信息,并在两个层面上进行了分析。最初,该研究使用多项逻辑回归来得出未采用行为。结果表明,家庭规模、风险规避、炊事员教育(女性)、厨房(室内)、房屋结构以及投入品不可用是未采用背后的重要因素。详细分析还表明,家庭主要成员的年龄、房屋面积、炊事员教育(女性)、厨房位置(室内)以及房屋到公共汽车站的距离(分钟)等因素都有利于沼气的潜在采用。该研究还借助二元逻辑回归调查了沼气沼气池长期可持续性的潜在因素。结果表明,厨房位置(室内)、炊事员教育(女性)、培训和补贴显著且积极地影响沼气厂的运行概率。基于这些结果,本研究建议政策制定者增加农村地区女性的教育,提供补贴以降低成本和风险,并为采用者安排培训。

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