Faculty of Economics Administrative and Social Sciences, Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, via Mersin 10, P.O. Box 99628, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Aug;29(36):54492-54506. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19599-9. Epub 2022 Mar 18.
This study is premised on Indonesia's climate goal amidst good economic performance. To test the environmental implication of this macroeconomic performance of Indonesia, we adopt Indonesian quarterly data of 1990Q1-2018Q4 for empirical analysis. Relevant instruments in the economic performance of Indonesia such as urbanization, foreign direct investment (FDI), and renewable energy source are all adopted for accurate estimations and analysis of this topic. Different approaches (structural break test, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing and Granger causality) are all adopted in this study. Our analysis and policy recommendations are based on the short-run and long-run ARDL dynamics and Granger causality. Findings from ARDL confirmed negative relationship between carbon emission and renewable energy source, FDI, and urbanization. Also, a U-shape instead of inverted U-shaped EKC is found confirming the impeding implication of Indonesian economic growth to its environmental performance if not checkmate. From Granger causality analysis, all the variables are seen transmitting to urbanization in a one-way causal relationship. Also, FDI and renewable energy prove to be essential determinants of the country's environment development; hence, FDI is seen transmitting to both energy sources (fossil fuels and renewables) in a one-way causal relationship. Renewable energy is as well seen having two ways causal relationship with both carbon emission and fossil fuels. This result has equally exposed the significant position of the three instruments (urbanization, FDI, and renewable energy source) in Indonesian environment development.
本研究基于印度尼西亚在良好经济表现下的气候目标。为了检验印度尼西亚这种宏观经济表现对环境的影响，我们采用了 1990 年第一季度至 2018 年第四季度的印度尼西亚季度数据进行实证分析。印度尼西亚经济表现中的相关工具，如城市化、外国直接投资（FDI）和可再生能源，都被用于准确估计和分析这一主题。本研究采用了不同的方法（结构断点检验、自回归分布滞后（ARDL）-边界检验和格兰杰因果关系）。我们的分析和政策建议基于短期和长期的 ARDL 动态和格兰杰因果关系。ARDL 的分析结果证实，碳排放与可再生能源、FDI 和城市化之间存在负相关关系。此外，还发现了一种 U 形而不是倒 U 形的 EKC，这表明如果不加以遏制，印度尼西亚的经济增长对其环境表现会产生阻碍影响。从格兰杰因果关系分析来看，所有变量都以单向因果关系传递到城市化。此外，FDI 和可再生能源被证明是该国环境发展的重要决定因素；因此，FDI 以单向因果关系传递到能源（化石燃料和可再生能源）。可再生能源与碳排放和化石燃料之间也存在双向因果关系。这一结果同样揭示了这三个工具（城市化、FDI 和可再生能源）在印度尼西亚环境发展中的重要地位。
