Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, London, UK.
Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Surrey, UK.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2022 Sep;69(5):e1787-e1799. doi: 10.1111/tbed.14513. Epub 2022 Mar 28.
Increases in temperature and extreme weather events due to global warming can create an environment that is beneficial to mosquito populations, changing and possibly increasing the suitable geographical range for many vector-borne diseases. West Nile Virus (WNV) is a flavivirus, maintained in a mosquito-avian host cycle that is usually asymptomatic but can cause primarily flu-like symptoms in human and equid accidental hosts. In rare circumstances, serious disease and death are possible outcomes for both humans and horses. The main European vector of WNV is the Culex pipiens mosquito. This study examines the effect of environmental temperature on WNV establishment in Europe via Culex pipiens populations through use of a basic reproduction number ( ) model. A metric of thermal suitability derived from was developed by collating thermal responses of different Culex pipiens traits and combining them through use of a next-generation matrix. WNV establishment was determined to be possible between 14°C and 34.3°C, with the optimal temperature at 23.7°C. The suitability measure was plotted against monthly average temperatures in 2020 and the number of months with high suitability mapped across Europe. The average number of suitable months for each year from 2013 to 2019 was also calculated and validated with reported equine West Nile fever cases from 2013 to 2019. The widespread thermal suitability for WNV establishment highlights the importance of European surveillance for this disease and the need for increased research into mosquito and bird distribution.
由于全球变暖导致的温度升高和极端天气事件，可能会创造出有利于蚊子种群的环境，从而改变和可能增加许多虫媒疾病的适宜地理范围。西尼罗河病毒（WNV）是一种黄病毒，在蚊子-鸟类宿主循环中维持，通常无症状，但可能导致人类和马等偶然宿主出现类似流感的症状。在极少数情况下，人类和马都可能出现严重疾病和死亡。WNV 的主要欧洲传播媒介是库蚊（Culex pipiens）。本研究通过使用基本繁殖数（ ）模型，研究了环境温度对欧洲库蚊种群中 WNV 建立的影响。通过整理不同库蚊特性的热反应并通过使用下一代矩阵对其进行组合，从 中得出了热适宜性的度量标准。WNV 的建立被确定在 14°C 和 34.3°C 之间是可能的，最佳温度为 23.7°C。将适宜性指标与 2020 年的月平均温度进行对比，并绘制了整个欧洲高适宜性的月份图。还计算了 2013 年至 2019 年每年的适宜月份平均值，并结合 2013 年至 2019 年报告的马西尼罗河热病例进行了验证。WNV 建立的广泛热适宜性突出了欧洲对这种疾病进行监测的重要性，以及需要增加对蚊子和鸟类分布的研究。
