SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in the urban-rural interface.

OBJECTIVES

As the world responds to the coronavirus outbreak, the role of public health in ensuring equitable health care that considers the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) dynamics in rural communities is still a challenge. The same suppression and mitigation measures have been implemented homogeneously, ignoring the differences between urban and rural areas. We propose an epidemiological model and simulate the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in urban and rural areas considering the interaction between these regions.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a population modeling study.

METHODS

A compartmental epidemiological model was formulated to simulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in urban and rural areas. We use the model to investigate the impact of control strategies focused on the urban-rural interface to contain the epidemic size of SARS-CoV-2 in rural areas.

RESULTS

Considering five different levels for the exposition rate in urban areas and keeping intrarural and urban-rural exposition rates fixed, the preventive measures reduce the size and delay the peak for the urban infectives. The response of infected individuals and cumulative deaths in rural areas upon changes in the urban dynamics was small but not negligible. On the other hand, preventive measures focused on the urban-rural interface impact the number of infected individuals and deaths in rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

The maintenance of SARS-CoV-2 in rural areas depends on the interaction of individuals at the urban-rural interface. Thus, restrictive measures established by the governments would not be required within rural areas. We highlight the importance of focused preventive measures on the urban-rural interface to reduce the exposure and avoid the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to rural communities.