Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 May 14;18(10):5221. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18105221.
Few studies have examined the transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in rural areas and clarified rural-urban differences. Moreover, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) relative to vaccination in rural areas is uncertain. We addressed this knowledge gap through using an improved statistical stochastic method based on the Galton-Watson branching process, considering both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Data included 1136 SARS-2-CoV infections of the rural outbreak in Hebei, China, and 135 infections of the urban outbreak in Tianjin, China. We reconstructed SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains and analyzed the effectiveness of vaccination and NPIs by simulation studies. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 showed strong heterogeneity in urban and rural areas, with the dispersion parameters = 0.14 and 0.35, respectively ( < 1 indicating strong heterogeneity). Although age group and contact-type distributions significantly differed between urban and rural areas, the average reproductive number () and did not. Further, simulation results based on pre-control parameters ( = 0.81, = 0.27) showed that in the vaccination scenario (80% efficacy and 55% coverage), the cumulative secondary infections will be reduced by more than half; however, NPIs are more effective than vaccinating 65% of the population. These findings could inform government policies regarding vaccination and NPIs in rural and urban areas.
很少有研究检查了严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）在农村地区的传播动态，并阐明了城乡差异。此外，相对于疫苗接种，非药物干预（NPIs）在农村地区的效果尚不确定。我们通过使用一种基于 Galton-Watson 分支过程的改进的统计随机方法来解决这一知识空白，同时考虑了有症状和无症状病例。数据包括中国河北省农村疫情的 1136 例 SARS-2-CoV 感染和中国天津市城市疫情的 135 例感染。我们重建了 SARS-CoV-2 的传播链，并通过模拟研究分析了疫苗接种和 NPIs 的效果。SARS-CoV-2 在城市和农村地区的传播表现出很强的异质性，分散参数分别为 = 0.14 和 0.35（<1 表示强异质性）。尽管城乡地区的年龄组和接触类型分布有显著差异，但平均繁殖数（）和 没有差异。此外，基于预控制参数（ = 0.81， = 0.27）的模拟结果表明，在接种方案（80%的效力和 55%的覆盖率）中，累计二次感染将减少一半以上；然而，NPIs 比接种 65%的人口更有效。这些发现可以为政府在农村和城市地区制定疫苗接种和 NPIs 政策提供信息。
