渥太华3DY在一项前瞻性队列研究中预测死亡率。
The Ottawa 3DY Predicts Mortality in a Prospective Cohort Study.
作者信息
St John Philip Donald, Molnar Frank Joseph
机构信息
Section of Geriatric Medicine, Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB.
Centre on Aging, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB.
出版信息
Can Geriatr J. 2022 Mar 2;25(1):66-71. doi: 10.5770/cgj.25.525. eCollection 2022 Mar.
BACKGROUND
The Ottawa 3DY (O3DY) is a simple measure of cognition.
OBJECTIVES
- To determine if the O3DY predicts mortality; and 2) To compare the discrimination of the O3DY to the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Modified MMSE (3MS).
METHODS
Analyses of a population based cohort study of 1,751 participants aged 65+; conducted in 1991/2 with follow-up over five years. The O3DY, age, sex, education, comorbid conditions, the MMSE, and the 3MS were measured: 4.5% of the participants had missing data for the O3DY; 42.8% were considered as positive (one or more errors), and 52.7% were considered as negative (no errors). Logistic regression models were constructed with the outcome of death at time 2. A Receiver Operator Curve (ROC) was constructed and the Area Under the ROC (AUROC) was calculated using a c-statistic.
RESULTS
The unadjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for mortality was 1.96 (1.56, 2.47); and the adjusted OR was 1.33 (1.02, 1.72). The AUROC was 0.66 for the 3MS, 0.65 for the MMSE, and 0.60 for the O3DY.
CONCLUSIONS
The O3DY predicts mortality over a long time frame, although the discrimination is less than that of longer measures of cognition.
背景
渥太华3DY（O3DY）是一种简单的认知测量方法。
目的
1）确定O3DY是否能预测死亡率；2）比较O3DY与简易精神状态检查表（MMSE）和改良MMSE（3MS）的辨别能力。
方法
对1751名65岁及以上参与者进行基于人群的队列研究分析；于1991/1992年开展，随访五年。测量了O3DY、年龄、性别、教育程度、合并症、MMSE和3MS：4.5%的参与者O3DY数据缺失；42.8%被视为阳性（一个或多个错误），52.7%被视为阴性（无错误）。构建了以时间2时死亡为结局的逻辑回归模型。构建了受试者工作特征曲线（ROC），并使用c统计量计算ROC曲线下面积（AUROC）。
结果
死亡率的未调整比值比（OR）和95%置信区间（CI）为1.96（1.56，2.47）；调整后的OR为1.33（1.02，1.72）。3MS的AUROC为0.66，MMSE为0.65，O3DY为0.60。
结论
O3DY能在较长时间范围内预测死亡率，尽管其辨别能力低于更长的认知测量方法。
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