School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China.
School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China.
J Environ Manage. 2022 Jun 15;312:114915. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114915. Epub 2022 Mar 18.
To curb the continuous deterioration of ozone (O) pollution in China, identifying the O-precursor sensitivity (OPS) and its driving factors is a prerequisite for formulating effective O pollution control measures. Traditional OPS identification methods have limitations in terms of spatiotemporal representation and timeliness; therefore, they are not appropriate for making OPS forecasts for O contingency control. OPS is not only influenced by local precursor emissions but is also closely related to meteorological conditions governed by large-scale circulation (LSC). In this study, a localized three-dimensional numerical modeling system was used to investigate the relationship between LSC and OPS in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China during September 2017, a month with continuous O pollution. Our results highlighted that there was a close relationship between LSC and OPS over the PRD, and the four dominant LSC patterns corresponded well to the NO-limited, NO-limited, VOC-limited, and transitional regimes, respectively. The clear linkage between LSC and OPS was mainly driven by the spatial heterogeneity of NO and VOC emissions within and beyond the PRD along the prevailing winds under different LSC patterns. A conceptual model was developed to highlight the intrinsic causality between the LSC and OPS. Because current technology can accurately forecast LSC 48-72 h in advance, the LSC-based OPS forecast method provided us with a novel approach to guide contingency control and management measures to reduce peak O at a regional scale.
为遏制中国持续恶化的臭氧（O）污染，识别臭氧前体敏感性（OPS）及其驱动因素是制定有效臭氧污染控制措施的前提。传统的 OPS 识别方法在时空表现和时效性方面存在局限性；因此，它们不适合进行臭氧应急控制的 OPS 预测。OPS 不仅受到本地前体排放的影响，还与受大尺度环流（LSC）支配的气象条件密切相关。在这项研究中，使用本地化的三维数值模拟系统研究了 2017 年 9 月持续出现臭氧污染期间中国珠江三角洲（PRD）的 LSC 与 OPS 之间的关系。我们的结果突出表明，PRD 地区的 LSC 与 OPS 之间存在密切关系，四种主要的 LSC 模式分别对应于 NO 限制、NO 限制、VOC 限制和过渡状态。LSC 与 OPS 之间的明确联系主要是由不同 LSC 模式下盛行风下风区内外的 NO 和 VOC 排放的空间异质性驱动的。建立了一个概念模型来突出 LSC 和 OPS 之间的内在因果关系。由于当前技术可以提前准确预测 48-72 小时的 LSC，因此基于 LSC 的 OPS 预测方法为我们提供了一种新方法，可以指导应急控制和管理措施，以减少区域尺度的峰值 O。
