成年严重创伤患者24小时死亡率的临床预测评分方案
Clinical Prediction Scoring Scheme for 24 h Mortality in Major Traumatic Adult Patients.
作者信息
Samuthtai Waratsuda, Patumanond Jayanton, Samutrtai Pawitrabhorn, Charernboon Thammanard, Jearwattanakanok Kijja, Khorana Jiraporn
机构信息
Department of Emergency Medicine, Nakornping Hospital, Chiang Mai 50180, Thailand.
Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Clinical Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Thammasat University, Bangkok 12120, Thailand.
出版信息
Healthcare (Basel). 2022 Mar 20;10(3):577. doi: 10.3390/healthcare10030577.
A death rate of approximately 32.7 in 100,000 traffic injury victims was reported in Thailand. The prediction of early death would identify and enable prioritization of the most severe patients for resuscitation and consequently reduce the number of deaths. This study aimed to develop a clinical prediction scoring system for 24 h mortality in adult major trauma patients. Retrospective-prognostic clinical prediction was applied in the case of 3173 adult trauma patients who were classified into three groups: death within 8 h, death between 8 and 24 h, and alive at 24 h. The predictors were obtained by univariable and multivariable logistic regression, and the coefficient of parameters was converted to predict early death. The numbers of patients who died within 8 h and between 8 and 24 h were 46 (1.5%) and 123 (3.8%), respectively. The predictors included systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg, heart rate ≥120 bpm, Glasgow coma scale ≤8, traffic injury, and assault injury. The scores of 4 indicated a mortality rate of 12% with a high specificity of 0.89. The suggested TERMINAL-24 scoring system can be used for the prediction of early death in the Emergency Department. However, its discrimination ability and precision should be validated before practical use.
泰国报告称,每10万名交通伤受害者的死亡率约为32.7。预测早期死亡情况将有助于识别最严重的患者并对其复苏进行优先排序,从而减少死亡人数。本研究旨在开发一种针对成年严重创伤患者24小时死亡率的临床预测评分系统。对3173例成年创伤患者进行回顾性预后临床预测,这些患者被分为三组:8小时内死亡、8至24小时内死亡、24小时存活。通过单变量和多变量逻辑回归获得预测因素,并将参数系数转换以预测早期死亡。8小时内死亡和8至24小时内死亡的患者人数分别为46例(1.5%)和123例(3.8%)。预测因素包括收缩压<90 mmHg、心率≥120次/分钟、格拉斯哥昏迷量表≤8、交通伤和袭击伤。得分为4时,死亡率为12%,特异性高达0.89。建议的TERMINAL - 24评分系统可用于急诊科早期死亡的预测。然而,在实际应用前,其辨别能力和准确性应得到验证。
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