Caulkins Jonathan P, Reuter Peter
Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA 15237, USA.
School of Public Policy and Department of Criminology, University of Maryland, USA.
Int J Drug Policy. 2022 May;103:103652. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2022.103652. Epub 2022 Mar 23.
The illegal drug trade is often, and plausibly, asserted to be the largest illegal market, globally and in many individual countries. It is also claimed that a large share of its revenues is laundered, though there are no estimates of that volume. We provide rough estimates of that proportion and its primary determinants.
This paper presents a model of a multi-tiered drug distribution network that is parameterized with data based on one typical, well-studied case, namely British Colombia's market for illegal opioids, supplemented by a corresponding economic interpretation of what determines the share of drug trade revenues that need to be laundered. Sensitivity with respect to key parameters is analyzed.
We suggest that less than half and perhaps no more than a quarter of revenues from established drug markets need laundering. Key parameters governing this proportion include the price mark-up across distribution levels, transaction volumes at each market level, and the capacity of market participants to spend cash on daily living expenses.
This model permits estimation of the scale of money laundering associated with a particular drug market. It suggests that there are limits on money laundering controls as a way of reducing drug supply - although money laundering investigations may still be an effective way to identify and investigate high-level drug traffickers.
非法毒品交易常常被认为是全球及许多国家最大的非法市场，这种说法看似合理。也有人声称，其很大一部分收入被用于洗钱，不过目前尚无这方面的数额估算。我们对这一比例及其主要决定因素进行了粗略估算。
本文提出了一个多层级毒品分销网络模型，该模型根据一个典型且经过充分研究的案例（即不列颠哥伦比亚省的非法阿片类药物市场）的数据进行参数设定，并辅以对决定需洗钱的毒品贸易收入份额的相应经济解读。分析了关键参数的敏感性。
我们认为，成熟毒品市场的收入中需要洗钱的比例不到一半，或许至多四分之一。决定这一比例的关键参数包括各分销层级的价格加成、每个市场层级的交易量以及市场参与者将现金用于日常生活开支的能力。
该模型可以估算与特定毒品市场相关的洗钱规模。这表明，作为减少毒品供应的一种方式，洗钱控制存在局限性——尽管洗钱调查可能仍是识别和调查高级毒贩的有效手段。
