Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstr.57, 4002 Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland; Armauer Hansen Research Institute, Jimma Road, PO Box 1005, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstr.57, 4002 Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Prev Vet Med. 2022 May;202:105616. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105616. Epub 2022 Mar 19.
Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is endemic in Ethiopia. Although upgraded dairy cattle account for only 1% of the total cattle population, they are the backbone of the marketed milk production in the country. Supported by research data outputs from three years, we report in this paper an estimate of the productivity loss and cost of BTB to the Ethiopian dairy sector in two dairy settings, the urban production system in Central Ethiopia (model 1) and the national upgraded dairy production (model 2). Primary data sources were used (e.g. market survey; three-year longitudinal productivity survey; abattoir survey) as well as secondary data sources. A matrix population model, composed of a population vector representing the herd composition that is repeatedly multiplied with a projection matrix, was developed to simulate the livestock dairy population. The initial herd structure was simulated over 30 years to obtain an equilibrium herd-structure representing an Eigenvector of the projection matrix. We performed an incremental cost of disease analysis by comparing livestock production with and without BTB during a period of 10 years. We assumed a BTB prevalence of 40%. In year ten, the Net present value (NPV) of livestock production in terms of milk, meat and hides was estimated at 154.5 million USD for model 1 and 1.7 billion USD for model 2. Loss of NPV over 10 years was estimated at 12 million USD for model 1 and 131.7 million USD for model 2, representing roughly 7.3% loss in NPV or 219 USD per animal. This is a benchmark against which a national TB control program could be developed in the future to calculate its benefit/cost ratio.
牛结核病（BTB）在埃塞俄比亚流行。尽管升级奶牛仅占总牛群的 1%，但它们是该国市场牛奶生产的骨干。在三年的研究数据支持下，我们在此报告了两种奶牛养殖环境下，即埃塞俄比亚中部城市生产系统（模型 1）和国家升级奶牛生产（模型 2）中 BTB 对埃塞俄比亚奶牛部门造成的生产力损失和成本估计。主要数据来源（例如市场调查；三年纵向生产力调查；屠宰场调查）以及次要数据来源都得到了应用。我们开发了一个矩阵人口模型，由一个代表畜群组成的种群向量组成，该向量反复与一个投影矩阵相乘，以模拟牲畜牛奶种群。初始畜群结构在 30 年内进行了模拟，以获得代表投影矩阵特征向量的平衡畜群结构。我们通过在 10 年内比较有和没有 BTB 的牲畜生产，进行了疾病增量成本分析。我们假设 BTB 流行率为 40%。在第十年，模型 1 的牛奶、肉类和皮革的牲畜生产的净现值（NPV）估计为 1.545 亿美元，模型 2 的 NPV 估计为 17 亿美元。在 10 年内，模型 1 的 NPV 损失估计为 1200 万美元，模型 2 的 NPV 损失估计为 1.317 亿美元，分别代表 NPV 损失约 7.3%或每头动物损失 219 美元。这是一个基准，可以根据该基准制定未来的国家结核病控制计划，以计算其效益/成本比。
