Relationship of COPD Exacerbation Severity and Frequency on Risks for Future Events and Economic Burden in the Medicare Fee-For-Service Population.

PURPOSE

To quantify the effects of moderate and/or severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations on future exacerbations and healthcare costs in Medicare Fee-For-Service beneficiaries.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of patients ≥40 years of age, with continuous enrollment from 2015 to 2018, with an index COPD diagnosis defined as first hospitalization, emergency department visit, or first of two outpatient visits (≥30 days apart) in 2015 with a claim for chronic bronchitis, emphysema, or chronic airway obstruction. Patients were stratified by baseline exacerbation categories in year one (YR1) and subsequently evaluated in YR2 and YR3: (A) none; (B) 1 moderate; (C) ≥2 moderate; (D) 1 severe; and (E) ≥2, one being severe. Moderate exacerbations were defined as COPD-related outpatient/ED visits with a corticosteroid/antibiotic claim within ±7 days of the visit and severe exacerbations as hospitalizations with a primary COPD diagnosis. Total all-cause costs for Categories B-E were compared to reference Category A using generalized linear models and inflation adjusted to 2019 dollars.

RESULTS

A total of 1,492,108 patients met study criteria with a mean (±SD) age of 70.9±10.9. In YR1, nearly 40% of patients experienced ≥1 moderate and/or severe exacerbations. Patients having multiple exacerbations, regardless of severity were 2-4 times more likely to experience an exacerbation during YR2 and YR3. Adjusted costs ranged between $24,000 and $26,600 for all categories for YR2 and YR3. Adjusted YR2 costs for Category D and E were $1421 and $1548 higher than those without an exacerbation (Category A YR2 $25,084, YR3 $24,282; p<0.0001). The respective YR3 adjusted costs were $2062 and $2117 higher than those without an exacerbation (Category A; p<0.0001), representing an increase of 6-8% and 8-9% for YR2 and YR3.

CONCLUSION

Medicare patients with recent moderate or severe exacerbations, or at least two exacerbations per year are at significant risk for future exacerbations and incur higher all-cause costs.