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转折点:新一轮全球 COVID-19 浪潮还是全球 COVID-19 大流行结束的信号?

Turning point: A new global COVID-19 wave or a signal of the beginning of the end of the global COVID-19 pandemic?

机构信息

Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China.

出版信息

Immun Inflamm Dis. 2022 Apr;10(4):e606. doi: 10.1002/iid3.606.

Abstract

A new variant named Omicron (B.1.1.529), first identified in South Africa, has become of considerable interest to the World Health Organization. This variant differs from the other known major variants, as it carries a large number of unusual mutations, particularly in the spinous process protein and receptor binding domains. Some specific mutation sites make it vaccine resistant, highly infectious, and highly pathogenic. The world fears that the Omicron variant could be even more harmful than the previous major variant, given that it has emerged amid fierce competition to trigger a new global pandemic peak as infections in South Africa rise. However, some epidemiological evidence has emerged that the Omicron variant may produce milder patient symptoms. We speculate if the virulence of the Omicron variant will diminish as transmissibility increases, thereby signaling the beginning of the end for the global COVID-19 pandemic. Based on this view, we make recommendations for COVID-19 mitigation in the present and future. However, it will take a few weeks to determine the true threat posed by the Omicron variant and we need to be fully prepared for future outbreaks, regardless of their severity.

摘要

一种名为奥密克戎(B.1.1.529)的新变体,最初在南非被发现,已经引起了世界卫生组织的极大关注。该变体与其他已知的主要变体不同,因为它携带大量不寻常的突变,特别是在刺突蛋白和受体结合域。一些特定的突变位点使其对疫苗具有抗性、高度传染性和高致病性。世界担心奥密克戎变体可能比之前的主要变体更具危害性,因为它出现在南非感染率上升之际,引发了新的全球大流行高峰的激烈竞争。然而,一些流行病学证据表明,奥密克戎变体可能会产生较轻的患者症状。我们推测,如果奥密克戎变体的毒力随着传染性的增加而降低,那么这可能预示着全球 COVID-19 大流行的结束。基于这一观点,我们针对当前和未来的 COVID-19 缓解措施提出了建议。然而,要确定奥密克戎变体带来的真正威胁还需要几周的时间,我们需要为未来的疫情做好充分准备,无论其严重程度如何。

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