An app for predicting nurse intention to quit the job using artificial neural networks (ANNs) in Microsoft Excel.

BACKGROUND

: Numerous studies have identified factors related to nurses’ intention to leave. However, none has successfully predicted the nurse’s intention to quit the job. Whether the intention to quit the job can be predicted is an interesting topic in healthcare settings. A model to predict the nurse’s intention to quit the job for novice nurses should be investigated. The aim of this study is to build a model to develop an app for the automatic prediction and classification of nurses’ intention to quit their jobs.

METHODS

: We recruited 1104 novice nurses working in 6 medical centers in Taiwan to complete 100-item questionnaires related to the nurse’s intention to quit the job in October 2018. The k-mean was used to divide nurses into 2 classes based on 5 items regarding leave intention. Feature variables were selected from the 100-item survey. Two models, including an artificial neural network (ANN) and a convolutional neural network, were compared across 4 scenarios made up of 2 training sets (n = 1104 and n = 804 ≅ 70%) and their corresponding testing (n = 300 ≅ 30%) sets to verify the model accuracy. An app for predicting the nurse’s intention to quit the job was then developed as a website assessment.

RESULTS

: We observed that 24 feature variables extracted from this study in the ANN model yielded a higher area under the ROC curve of 0.82 (95% CI 0.80-0.84) based on the 1104 cases, the ANN performed better than the convolutional neural network on the accuracy, and a ready and available app for predicting the nurse’s intention to quit the job was successfully developed in this study.

CONCLUSIONS

: A 24-item ANN model with 53 parameters estimated by the ANN was developed to improve the accuracy of nurses’ intention to quit their jobs. The app would help team leaders take care of nurses who intend to quit the job before their actions are taken.

KEY POINTS

We performed ANN on Microsoft Excel, which is rare in the literature. An app was built to display results using a visual dashboard on Google Maps. The animation-featured dashboard was incorporated with the ANN model, allowing an easy understanding of the classification results with visual representations. The category probability curves were uniquely derived from the Rasch rating scale model and launched to the ANN prediction model to display the binary classification, using probability to interpret the prediction results.