Hooker Roderick S, Kulo Violet, Kayingo Gerald, Jun Hyun-Jin, Cawley James F
Northern Arizona University, Phoenix, USA.
Physician Assistant Leadership and Learning Academy, Baltimore, USA.
Future Healthc J. 2022 Mar;9(1):57-63. doi: 10.7861/fhj.2021-0193.
Physician assistant/associates (PAs) are healthcare professionals whose roles expand universal access across many nations. PAs fill medical provider supply and demand gaps. Our paper reports a forecasting project to predict the likely census of PAs in the medical workforce spanning from 2020 to 2035.
Microsimulation modelling of the American PA workforce was performed using the number of clinically active PAs employed in 2020 as the baseline. Graduation rates and PA programme expansion were parameters used to predict annual growth; attrition estimates balanced the equation. Two models, one based on data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and another based on National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants (NCCPA) data were used to estimate future annual PA census numbers.
As of 2020, the BLS estimated 125,280 PAs were in the medical workforce; the NCCPA estimate was 148,560 PAs in active practice. The BLS model predicted approximately 204,243 clinically active PAs by 2035; the NCCPA-based model predicted 214,248 PAs in clinical practice.
A PA predictive model based on four data sources projects that the 2035 census of clinically active PAs to be between 204,000 and 214,000: a growth rate of approximately 35%.
医师助理是医疗保健专业人员，其角色在许多国家扩大了全民医疗服务的可及性。医师助理填补了医疗服务提供者供需之间的差距。我们的论文报告了一个预测项目，以预测2020年至2035年医疗劳动力中医师助理的可能人数。
以2020年就业的临床活跃医师助理数量为基线，对美国医师助理劳动力进行微观模拟建模。毕业率和医师助理项目扩张是用于预测年度增长的参数；损耗估计平衡了等式。使用两个模型，一个基于美国劳工统计局（BLS）的数据，另一个基于医师助理国家认证委员会（NCCPA）的数据，来估计未来每年医师助理的人数。
截至2020年，BLS估计医疗劳动力中有125,280名医师助理；NCCPA估计有148,560名正在执业的医师助理。BLS模型预测到2035年约有204,243名临床活跃医师助理；基于NCCPA的模型预测临床实践中有214,
