Ohmann C, Künneke M, Zaczyk R, Thon K, Lorenz W
Stat Med. 1986 Sep-Oct;5(5):503-15. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780050515.
In this paper two problems of computer-aided diagnosis with 'independence Bayes' were investigated: selection of variables and monotonicity in performance as the number of measurements is increased. Using prospective data from patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding, the stepwise forward selection approach maximizing the apparent diagnostic accuracy was analysed with respect to different kinds of bias in estimation of the true diagnostic accuracy and to the stability of the number and type of variables selected. The results of this study suggest first that the selection of variables should be evaluated against the estimated true diagnostic accuracy obtained using all variables, and secondly that the results of a single selected sequence may be severely biased.
本文研究了“独立贝叶斯”计算机辅助诊断的两个问题：变量选择以及随着测量次数增加性能的单调性。利用上消化道出血患者的前瞻性数据，针对估计真实诊断准确性时的不同偏差以及所选变量的数量和类型的稳定性，分析了使表观诊断准确性最大化的逐步向前选择方法。本研究结果表明，首先应根据使用所有变量获得的估计真实诊断准确性来评估变量选择，其次单个所选序列的结果可能存在严重偏差。
