School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, NO.217 Jianshan Street, Shahekou District, Dalian, 116025, Liaoning, China.
Fushun Vocational and Technical College, Fushun, 113000, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Sep;29(41):62592-62610. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19621-0. Epub 2022 Apr 11.
To achieve China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, conducting systematic research on the energy, economy, and emission factors that affect the sustainable development of society is of great significance. This paper first uses the vector error correction model (VECM)-based Granger causality test to analyze the joint causal relations and feedback correction mechanisms among energy consumption, economic growth, and CO emissions in China from 1980 to 2019 at the energy heterogeneity level; then, analyzes the decoupling effect of China's four major energy sources (coal, oil, natural gas, and electricity) and economic growth from the perspective of energy heterogeneity; finally, the Tapio decoupling elastic model is decomposed into the emission reduction elasticity and energy saving elasticity to analyze the decoupling causality chain of the economy, energy, and carbon emissions. The research results show that there is a long-term, two-way causal relation between coal consumption and CO; coal consumption has a one-way causal relation with economic growth; and long-term, two-way causal relations exist between oil and CO, natural gas and CO, electricity and CO, electricity, and economic growth. In addition, when energy consumption, economic growth, and CO emissions deviate from their equilibrium states in the short term, various energy consumption, economic growth, and CO emissions in the previous year will be adjusted by 19.5%, 0.6%, …, 7.7%, and 3.4% to bring the nonequilibrium states back to the long-term equilibrium states. Furthermore, the energy-saving elasticity of China's total energy, coal, oil, and natural gas is the main factor affecting the corresponding decoupling elasticity, but the emission reduction elasticity of electricity has a stronger impact on the decoupling elasticity than the emission reduction elasticity does.
为实现中国碳达峰碳中和目标，系统研究影响社会可持续发展的能源、经济和排放因子具有重要意义。本文首先采用基于向量误差修正模型（VECM）的格兰杰因果检验方法，在能源异质性层面分析了中国 1980—2019 年能源消费、经济增长与 CO2 排放之间的联合因果关系和反馈修正机制；然后，从能源异质性视角分析了中国四大能源（煤炭、石油、天然气和电力）与经济增长之间的脱钩效应；最后，运用 Tapio 脱钩弹性模型将经济、能源与碳排放的脱钩因果链条进行分解，分析经济、能源与碳排放的脱钩因果关系。研究结果表明：煤炭消费与 CO2 排放之间存在长期双向因果关系，煤炭消费与经济增长之间存在单向因果关系；石油与 CO2、天然气与 CO2、电力与 CO2、电力与经济增长之间存在长期双向因果关系。此外，当能源消费、经济增长与 CO2 排放偏离短期均衡状态时，上年各种能源消费、经济增长与 CO2 排放将分别以 19.5%、0.6%……7.7%和 3.4%的调整力度将非均衡状态拉回到长期均衡状态。进一步地，中国总能源、煤炭、石油和天然气的节能弹性是影响对应脱钩弹性的主要因素，但电力的减排弹性对脱钩弹性的影响要强于减排弹性。
