School of Management Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao, 266525, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Nov;29(52):78457-78471. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-21266-y. Epub 2022 Jun 12.
The essential to achieving the 2060 carbon neutrality target in China lies in the performance of the construction industry. Decoupling economic development from CO emissions is the main strategy for reducing emissions in the construction industry. This paper is based on panel data for China and its 30 provinces during 2009-2019. A Tapio decoupling model is constructed to analyze the decoupling state of economic development and CO emissions in the construction industry. The logarithmic mean Divisia index model is constructed to continue the decomposition of the drivers of the decoupling state and CO emissions. The results show that (1) the economic development level of most provinces is positively correlated with their CO emissions; (2) Beijing and Jiangsu reach the ideal strong decoupling state, and Heilongjiang has the worst decoupling state. The same type of decoupling state shows a certain aggregation phenomenon in space; (3) economic output plays a critical role in promoting CO emissions and decoupling of the construction industry in China and the provinces. The main driver of decoupling is indirect carbon intensity; (4) energy intensity has a greater impact on CO emissions reduction in regions with more developed economic levels. Understanding the drivers of the decoupling state in China's construction industry provides a valuable basis for energy efficiency and emission reduction efforts in China and other countries.
实现中国 2060 年碳中和目标的关键在于建筑业的表现。经济发展与 CO2 排放脱钩是减少建筑业排放的主要策略。本文基于 2009-2019 年中国及其 30 个省份的面板数据，构建 Tapio 脱钩模型分析建筑业经济发展与 CO2 排放的脱钩状态，利用对数平均迪氏指数模型对脱钩状态和 CO2 排放的驱动因素进行分解。结果表明：（1）大部分省份的经济发展水平与 CO2 排放呈正相关；（2）北京和江苏达到理想的强脱钩状态，黑龙江的脱钩状态最差。相同类型的脱钩状态在空间上表现出一定的聚集现象；（3）经济产出对中国及各省份建筑业 CO2 排放和脱钩具有关键推动作用，脱钩的主要驱动因素是间接碳强度；（4）在经济水平较高的地区，能源强度对 CO2 减排的影响更大。了解中国建筑业脱钩状态的驱动因素，为中国及其他国家的能效提升和减排工作提供了有价值的依据。
