Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, 10680 Athens, Greece.
Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15784 Athens, Greece.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Mar 28;19(7):4017. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19074017.
There is a wealth of scientific literature that scrutinizes the relationship between mortality and temperature. The aim of this paper is to identify the nexus between temperature and three different causes of mortality (i.e., cardiological, respiratory, and cardiorespiratory) for three countries (Scotland, Spain, and Greece) and eleven cities (i.e., Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville, Zaragoza, Attica, and Thessaloniki), emphasizing the differences among these cities and comparing them to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship. To quantify the association between temperature and mortality, temperature thresholds are defined for each city using a robust statistical analysis, namely threshold regression analysis. In a more detailed perspective, the threshold used is called Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT), the temperature above or below which mortality is at minimum risk. Afterward, these thresholds are compared based on the geographical coordinates of each city. Our findings show that concerning all-causes of mortality under examination, the cities with higher latitude have lower temperature thresholds compared to the cities with lower latitude. The inclusion of the relationship between mortality and temperature in the array of upcoming climate change implications is critical since future climatic scenarios show an overall increase in the ambient temperature.
有大量的科学文献研究了死亡率与温度之间的关系。本文的目的是确定温度与三个不同死亡率原因（即心脏病学、呼吸和心肺）之间的关系，涉及三个国家（苏格兰、西班牙和希腊）和十一个城市（即格拉斯哥、爱丁堡、阿伯丁、邓迪、马德里、巴塞罗那、瓦伦西亚、塞维利亚、萨拉戈萨、阿提卡和塞萨洛尼基），强调这些城市之间的差异，并进行比较，以更深入地了解这种关系。为了量化温度与死亡率之间的关联，我们使用稳健的统计分析方法，即阈值回归分析，为每个城市定义了温度阈值。从更详细的角度来看，所使用的阈值称为最低死亡率温度（Minimum Mortality Temperature，MMT），即死亡率处于最低风险的温度。然后，根据每个城市的地理坐标对这些阈值进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，对于所有研究的死亡率原因，纬度较高的城市的温度阈值低于纬度较低的城市。由于未来气候情景显示环境温度总体上升，因此将死亡率与温度之间的关系纳入未来气候变化影响的范围至关重要。
