School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Australia.
School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jul 15;630:679-689. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.268. Epub 2018 Feb 27.
Temperature observation time and type influenced the assessment of heat impact on mortality, and different health events may have different temperature thresholds beyond which these health events increase substantially. This study aimed to investigate whether temperature observation time and type influenced the assessment of heatwave impact on morbidity, to assess how heatwave duration modified heatwave impact on morbidity, and to examine whether there was a consistent temperature threshold beyond which five different types of health events increased sharply.
Minutely air temperature data in Brisbane, Australia, were collected and converted into five daily temperature indicators observed at different time points or calculated using different approaches. Twenty-nine heatwave definitions for each temperature indicator were used to examine the effects of heatwaves on five health events (i.e., ambulance service uses, emergency department attendances (EDAs), hospitalizations, possible EDAs of heat and/or dehydration, and possible hospitalizations of heat and/or dehydration) by quasi-Poisson models.
Mean temperature was slightly better than maximum temperature in predicting heatwave impact on morbidity (P<0.05), and no appreciable difference in model performance was observed amongst different mean temperature indicators. Two-day-duration heatwaves were more detrimental than longer-lasting heatwaves when heatwave intensity was not high, and 97th percentile appeared to be a consistent temperature threshold for most heatwave-related health events (P<0.05).
It seems desirable in the development of heatwave definition and early warning systems to use mean temperature as an exposure indicator, and to adopt the 97th percentile of temperature as the trigger in Brisbane. Health sectors need to better prepare for short-lasting heatwaves.
温度观测时间和类型影响对热冲击致死亡率的评估，不同健康事件可能有不同的温度阈值，超过这些阈值，这些健康事件会大幅增加。本研究旨在探讨温度观测时间和类型是否影响对热浪致发病率的评估，评估热浪持续时间如何改变热浪对发病率的影响，以及是否存在一致的温度阈值，超过该阈值后五种不同类型的健康事件会急剧增加。
收集了澳大利亚布里斯班的逐分钟空气温度数据，并将其转换为在不同时间点观测或使用不同方法计算的五种日常温度指标。使用 29 种每种温度指标的热浪定义，通过拟泊松模型检验热浪对五种健康事件（即救护车使用、急诊就诊、住院、可能因热和/或脱水就诊的急诊、可能因热和/或脱水住院）的影响。
平均温度略优于最高温度，可更好地预测热浪对发病率的影响（P<0.05），且不同平均温度指标的模型性能无明显差异。在热浪强度不高时，持续两天的热浪比持续时间更长的热浪危害更大，97 百分位数似乎是大多数与热浪相关的健康事件的一致温度阈值（P<0.05）。
在制定热浪定义和预警系统时，似乎需要使用平均温度作为暴露指标，并在布里斯班采用温度的 97 百分位数作为触发值。卫生部门需要更好地为短期热浪做好准备。
