预测急性呼吸窘迫综合征患者死亡率的列线图
A Nomogram for Predicting the Mortality of Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.
作者信息
Wang Zhenqing, Xing Lihua, Cui Hongwei, Fu Guowei, Zhao Hui, Huang Mingjun, Zhao Yangchao, Xu Jing
机构信息
Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
Department of Respiratory ICU, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
出版信息
J Healthc Eng. 2022 Apr 7;2022:5940900. doi: 10.1155/2022/5940900. eCollection 2022.
Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is an acute lung injury associated with high morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to establish an accurate prediction model for mortality risk in ARDS. 70% of patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Database (MIMIC-III) were selected as the training group, and the remaining 30% as the testing group. Patients from a Chinese hospital were used for external validation. Univariate and multivariate regressions were used to screen the independent predictors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the calibration curve were used for evaluating the performance of the model. Age, hemoglobin, heart failure, renal failure, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), immune function impairment, total bilirubin (TBIL), and PaO/FiO were identified as independent predictors. The algorithm of the prediction model was: ln (Pr/(1 + Pr)) = -3.147 + 0.037 ∗ age - 0.068 ∗ hemoglobin + 0.522 ∗ heart failure (yes) + 0.487 ∗ renal failure (yes) + 0.029 ∗ SAPS II + 0.697 ∗ immune function impairment (yes) + 0.280 ∗ TBIL (abnormal) - 0.006 ∗ PaO/FiO (Pr represents the probability of death occurring). The AUC of the model was 0.791 (0.766-0.816), and the internal and the external validations both confirmed the good performance of the model. A nomogram for predicting the risk of death in ARDS patients was developed and validated. It may help clinicians early identify ARDS patients with high risk of death and thereby help reduce the mortality and improve the survival of ARDS.
急性呼吸窘迫综合征(ARDS)是一种具有高发病率和死亡率的急性肺损伤。本研究旨在建立一个针对ARDS患者死亡风险的准确预测模型。重症监护医学信息数据库(MIMIC-III)中70%的患者被选为训练组,其余30%为测试组。来自一家中国医院的患者用于外部验证。采用单因素和多因素回归筛选独立预测因素。采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)分析、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验和校准曲线评估模型性能。年龄、血红蛋白、心力衰竭、肾衰竭、简化急性生理学评分II(SAPS II)、免疫功能损害、总胆红素(TBIL)和动脉血氧分压/吸入氧分数比值(PaO/FiO)被确定为独立预测因素。预测模型的算法为:ln(Pr/(1 + Pr)) = -3.147 + 0.037 * 年龄 - 0.068 * 血红蛋白 + 0.522 * 心力衰竭(是) + 0.487 * 肾衰竭(是) + 0.029 * SAPS II + 0.697 * 免疫功能损害(是) + 0.280 * TBIL(异常) - 0.006 * PaO/FiO(Pr表示死亡发生的概率)。该模型的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.791(0.766 - 0.816),内部和外部验证均证实该模型性能良好。开发并验证了一个用于预测ARDS患者死亡风险的列线图。它可能有助于临床医生早期识别死亡风险高的ARDS患者,从而有助于降低ARDS的死亡率并提高其生存率。