Katayama Risa, Yoshida Wako, Ishii Shin
Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan.
Nuffield Department of Clinical Neuroscience, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 9DU, UK.
Commun Biol. 2022 Apr 19;5(1):367. doi: 10.1038/s42003-022-03314-y.
Prediction ability often involves some degree of uncertainty-a key determinant of confidence. Here, we sought to assess whether predictions are decodable in partially-observable environments where one's state is uncertain, and whether this information is sensitive to confidence produced by such uncertainty. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging-based, partially-observable maze navigation tasks in which subjects predicted upcoming scenes and reported their confidence regarding these predictions. Using a multi-voxel pattern analysis, we successfully decoded both scene predictions and subjective confidence from activities in the localized parietal and prefrontal regions. We also assessed confidence in their beliefs about where they were in the maze. Importantly, prediction decodability varied according to subjective scene confidence in the superior parietal lobule and state confidence estimated by the behavioral model in the inferior parietal lobule. These results demonstrate that prediction in uncertain environments depends on the prefrontal-parietal network within which prediction and confidence interact.
预测能力通常涉及一定程度的不确定性——这是信心的一个关键决定因素。在此，我们试图评估在个人状态不确定的部分可观察环境中预测是否可解码，以及该信息是否对这种不确定性产生的信心敏感。我们使用基于功能磁共振成像的部分可观察迷宫导航任务，其中受试者预测即将出现的场景并报告他们对这些预测的信心。通过多体素模式分析，我们成功地从局部顶叶和前额叶区域的活动中解码了场景预测和主观信心。我们还评估了他们对自己在迷宫中位置的信念的信心。重要的是，预测可解码性根据上顶叶中主观场景信心以及下顶叶中行为模型估计的状态信心而变化。这些结果表明，在不确定环境中的预测取决于前额叶 - 顶叶网络，其中预测和信心相互作用。
