Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Apr 18;19(8):4896. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19084896.
Permanent migration across provinces in China has become an important strategy for Chinese older people to respond to a temperature-unfriendly place of residence in late life. However, the relation between temperature effects and permanent settlements of older migrants remains unclear. Based on the data obtained from China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this paper examined how four temperature effects (i.e., cold effect, heat effect, temperature gap effect, and temperature zone effect) play a role in shaping older migrants' intentions to settle permanently in a destination place by conducting logistic regression analysis. Our findings show that: (1) extreme cold (rather than extreme heat or mild temperature) was found to have significant effects on settlement intentions of older people; (2) relative winter temperature between origin and destination places rather than absolute winter temperature in the destination place has a significant positive effect on the settlement intentions; (3) spatially, older migrants tend to migrate to geographically adjacent temperature zones. Our findings will inform a more effective planning and allocation of services for supporting older people by better understanding trends and intentions of older migrants.
中国的省际永久迁移已成为中国老年人应对晚年居住环境不适宜温度的重要策略。然而，温度效应与老年移民永久定居之间的关系尚不清楚。本文基于中国流动人口动态监测调查的数据，通过逻辑回归分析，考察了四种温度效应（即冷效应、热效应、温度差效应和温度区效应）如何在塑造老年移民在目的地永久定居的意愿方面发挥作用。研究结果表明：（1）极冷（而不是极热或温和的温度）对老年人的定居意愿有显著影响；（2）原籍地和目的地之间的相对冬季温度，而不是目的地的绝对冬季温度，对定居意愿有显著的正向影响；（3）在空间上，老年移民倾向于迁移到地理上相邻的温度区。本研究结果将通过更好地了解老年移民的趋势和意愿，为支持老年人提供更有效的规划和服务分配提供信息。
