Center for Liver Studies, University Hospital of the Federal University of Maranhão, Saint Louis CEP 65020-070, MA, Brazil.
Federal University of Maranhão, Medicine Course, Saint Louis CEP 65020-070, MA, Brazil.
Viruses. 2022 Mar 31;14(4):732. doi: 10.3390/v14040732.
This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the PAGE-B and REACH-B scores in predicting the risk of developing HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B regularly followed up at a reference service in the State of Maranhão. A historical, longitudinal, retrospective cohort study, carried out from the review of medical records of patients with chronic Hepatitis B. PAGE-B and REACH-B scores were calculated and the accuracy of the scores in predicting the risk of HCC in the studied population was evaluated. A total of 978 patients were included, with a median age of around 47 years, most of them female and not cirrhotic. HCC was identified in 34 patients. Thrombocytopenia, high viral load, male gender and age were associated with the occurrence of HCC. The ROC curve for the PAGE-B score showed a value of 0.78 and for the REACH-B score of 0.79. The cutoff point for PAGE-B was 11 points for greater sensitivity and for REACH-B 7.5 points considering greater sensitivity and 9.5 points considering greater specificity. PAGE-B and REACH-B scores were able to predict the risk of developing HCC in the studied population. The use of risk stratification scores is useful to reduce costs associated with HCC screening.
本研究旨在评估 PAGE-B 和 REACH-B 评分在预测定期在马腊尼昂州参考服务机构接受慢性乙型肝炎随访的患者发生 HCC 的风险中的准确性。这是一项历史的、纵向的、回顾性队列研究，通过对慢性乙型肝炎患者的病历进行回顾。计算了 PAGE-B 和 REACH-B 评分，并评估了评分在预测研究人群中 HCC 风险中的准确性。共纳入 978 例患者，中位年龄约为 47 岁，大多数为女性且无肝硬化。34 例患者发生 HCC。血小板减少、高病毒载量、男性和年龄与 HCC 的发生有关。PAGE-B 评分的 ROC 曲线值为 0.78，REACH-B 评分的 ROC 曲线值为 0.79。PAGE-B 的截断值为 11 分，以提高敏感性，而 REACH-B 的截断值为 7.5 分，以提高敏感性，9.5 分以提高特异性。PAGE-B 和 REACH-B 评分能够预测研究人群中 HCC 的发生风险。风险分层评分的使用有助于降低与 HCC 筛查相关的成本。
