Machine learning to predict no reflow and in-hospital mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction that underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND

The machine learning algorithm (MLA) was implemented to establish an optimal model to predict the no reflow (NR) process and in-hospital death that occurred in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI).

METHODS

The data were obtained retrospectively from 854 STEMI patients who underwent pPCI. MLA was applied to predict the potential NR phenomenon and confirm the in-hospital mortality. A random sampling method was used to split the data into the training (66.7%) and testing (33.3%) sets. The final results were an average of 10 repeated procedures. The area under the curve (AUC) and the associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the receiver operator characteristic were measured.

RESULTS

A random forest algorithm (RAN) had optimal discrimination for the NR phenomenon with an AUC of 0.7891 (95% CI: 0.7093-0.8688) compared with 0.6437 (95% CI: 0.5506-0.7368) for the decision tree (CTREE), 0.7488 (95% CI: 0.6613-0.8363) for the support vector machine (SVM), and 0.681 (95% CI: 0.5767-0.7854) for the neural network algorithm (NNET). The optimal RAN AUC for in-hospital mortality was 0.9273 (95% CI: 0.8819-0.9728), for SVM, 0.8935 (95% CI: 0.826-0.9611); NNET, 0.7756 (95% CI: 0.6559-0.8952); and CTREE, 0.7885 (95% CI: 0.6738-0.9033).

CONCLUSIONS

The MLA had a relatively higher performance when evaluating the NR risk and in-hospital mortality in patients with STEMI who underwent pPCI and could be utilized in clinical decision making.