NEtwoRks, Data, and Society (NERDS), IT University of Copenhagen, 2300, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Complexity Science Hub Vienna, 1080, Vienna, Austria.
Sci Rep. 2022 Apr 26;12(1):6765. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-10783-y.
Cycling is a promising solution to unsustainable urban transport systems. However, prevailing bicycle network development follows a slow and piecewise process, without taking into account the structural complexity of transportation networks. Here we explore systematically the topological limitations of urban bicycle network development. For 62 cities we study different variations of growing a synthetic bicycle network between an arbitrary set of points routed on the urban street network. We find initially decreasing returns on investment until a critical threshold, posing fundamental consequences to sustainable urban planning: cities must invest into bicycle networks with the right growth strategy, and persistently, to surpass a critical mass. We also find pronounced overlaps of synthetically grown networks in cities with well-developed existing bicycle networks, showing that our model reflects reality. Growing networks from scratch makes our approach a generally applicable starting point for sustainable urban bicycle network planning with minimal data requirements.
自行车出行是解决城市交通系统不可持续发展的一种很有前途的方案。然而，现有的自行车网络发展是一个缓慢且零碎的过程，并没有考虑到交通网络的结构复杂性。在这里，我们系统地探讨了城市自行车网络发展的拓扑限制。我们针对 62 个城市，研究了在城市街道网络上任意两点之间构建合成自行车网络的不同变化情况。我们发现，投资回报最初会逐渐减少，直到达到一个关键阈值，这对可持续城市规划产生了根本性的影响：城市必须投入正确的增长策略，并坚持不懈地超越这个关键的规模，才能建立自行车网络。我们还发现，在自行车网络已经很发达的城市中，合成网络的重叠现象非常明显，这表明我们的模型反映了现实。从零开始发展网络，使我们的方法成为具有最小数据要求的可持续城市自行车网络规划的一个普遍适用的起点。
