Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
School of Economics, Finance & Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Health Econ. 2022 Jul;31(7):1381-1401. doi: 10.1002/hec.4513. Epub 2022 Apr 26.
Using 13 waves of longitudinal data from Australia, we examine the relationship between petrol prices and obesity. Applying panel data models that control for individual fixed effects and the endogeneity of petrol prices, our results suggest that petrol prices have a negative effect on obesity. Specifically, our preferred instrumental variable estimates, which instrument for petrol prices using the Arca Oil Stock price and control for individual and time fixed effects, suggest that a standard deviation increase in petrol prices generates a 0.006 standard deviation decline in body mass index, while a unit increase in petrol prices results in a 2 percentage point decrease in the probability that a survey participant is obese. These results are robust to several sensitivity checks. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that our results imply that a permanent $1 per liter increase in petrol prices would reduce the number of people who were obese by 672,000 and save $1.4 billion dollars in medical expenditure related to obesity every year. We also find that frequency of participation in physical activity and expenditure on meals eaten out are channels through which petrol prices affect obesity.
利用来自澳大利亚的 13 波纵向数据，我们检验了汽油价格与肥胖之间的关系。通过应用面板数据模型控制个体固定效应和汽油价格的内生性，我们的结果表明，汽油价格对肥胖有负面影响。具体而言，我们首选的工具变量估计，使用 Arca Oil 股价对汽油价格进行工具变量，并控制个体和时间固定效应，表明汽油价格每标准偏差增加会导致身体质量指数下降 0.006 个标准偏差，而汽油价格每增加一个单位会导致肥胖的调查参与者的概率下降 2 个百分点。这些结果在经过多次敏感性检验后仍然成立。简单计算表明，我们的结果表明，汽油价格每升永久性上涨 1 美元，每年将减少 67.2 万人肥胖，同时节省与肥胖相关的医疗支出 14 亿美元。我们还发现，体育活动的参与频率和外出就餐的支出是汽油价格影响肥胖的渠道。
