Zhao Jingfeng, Li Bo
College of Management and Economic, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China.
Front Psychol. 2022 Apr 11;13:874412. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2022.874412. eCollection 2022.
With the rapid development of China's economy in recent decades, and the decentralization of the country's economic regulation and legal support, private financing has developed rapidly due to its simple, flexible and unique advantages. Some SMEs can solve it to some extent through private financing. The company's own financing issues have also helped the local financial market's effectiveness. Based on the "Yantai Private Financing Interest Rate Index," this paper constructs a private financial risk index model from three perspectives of interest rate risk, scale risk and credit risk, and conducts a case simulation analysis of the private financing risk index. The characteristic indicators of the early warning system are screened from the macro, micro and stability dimensions, and subjective and objective adjustment coefficients are set for each indicator from both subjective and objective perspectives. This article takes the Yantai Index as the representative of China's private financing interest rate index. Based on the term structure of Yantai's private lending rate, this paper studies its response to macroeconomic shocks and analyzes the information value it contains. And use the private financing interest rate index to build a financial risk monitoring model. Through the system transformation model, the article finds that there is a significant asymmetry in the response of private lending to macroeconomic shocks. When private lending rates are higher, inflation has a greater effect on interest rates; when private lending rates are lower, monetary policy has a stronger regulatory effect on private lending rates. In the data processing, the principal component analysis method and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model were established. Through the study of this article, it is concluded that the interest rate decreases with the increase of the term, and the risk comparison is performed for the 1-month period, 3-month period, June period, 1-year period, and more than 1-year. The risks in the previous period are greater, and the risks in the March and June periods are relatively small. This model can be used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value and its fluctuation in the historical risk market and historical equilibrium market, so as to determine the risk range of the comprehensive evaluation value. Thus, the early warning system is verified to be feasible.
近几十年来，随着中国经济的快速发展以及国家经济调控和法律支持的分权化，民间融资因其简单、灵活和独特的优势而迅速发展。一些中小企业可以通过民间融资在一定程度上解决自身融资问题。企业自身的融资问题也有助于提高当地金融市场的效率。本文基于“烟台民间融资利率指数”，从利率风险、规模风险和信用风险三个视角构建民间金融风险指数模型，并对民间融资风险指数进行案例模拟分析。从宏观、微观和稳定性维度筛选预警系统的特征指标，并从主观和客观两个角度为每个指标设定主观和客观调整系数。本文以烟台指数作为中国民间融资利率指数的代表。基于烟台民间借贷利率的期限结构，研究其对宏观经济冲击的反应并分析其所包含的信息价值。并利用民间融资利率指数构建金融风险监测模型。通过系统转换模型，本文发现民间借贷对宏观经济冲击的反应存在显著不对称性。当民间借贷利率较高时，通货膨胀对利率的影响更大；当民间借贷利率较低时，货币政策对民间借贷利率的监管作用更强。在数据处理方面，建立了主成分分析方法和贝叶斯向量自回归模型。通过本文的研究得出，利率随期限增加而降低，并对1个月期、3个月期、6个月期、1年期和1年以上期限进行风险比较。前期风险较大，3月期和6月期风险相对较小。该模型可用于计算历史风险市场和历史均衡市场的综合评估值及其波动情况，从而确定综合评估值的风险范围。由此验证了预警系统的可行性。
