Penn Justin L, Deutsch Curtis
School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
Science. 2022 Apr 29;376(6592):524-526. doi: 10.1126/science.abe9039. Epub 2022 Apr 28.
Global warming threatens marine biota with losses of unknown severity. Here, we quantify global and local extinction risks in the ocean across a range of climate futures on the basis of the ecophysiological limits of diverse animal species and calibration against the fossil record. With accelerating greenhouse gas emissions, species losses from warming and oxygen depletion alone become comparable to current direct human impacts within a century and culminate in a mass extinction rivaling those in Earth's past. Polar species are at highest risk of extinction, but local biological richness declines more in the tropics. Reversing greenhouse gas emissions trends would diminish extinction risks by more than 70%, preserving marine biodiversity accumulated over the past ~50 million years of evolutionary history.
全球变暖正威胁着海洋生物群，其损失程度尚不可知。在此，我们根据不同动物物种的生态生理极限，并对照化石记录进行校准，来量化一系列气候未来情景下海洋中的全球和局部灭绝风险。随着温室气体排放加速，仅因变暖和氧气耗尽导致的物种损失在一个世纪内就会与当前人类的直接影响相当，并最终导致一场与地球过去的大灭绝相媲美的大规模灭绝。极地物种面临的灭绝风险最高，但热带地区的局部生物丰富度下降得更多。扭转温室气体排放趋势将使灭绝风险降低70%以上，保护过去约5000万年进化历史中积累的海洋生物多样性。
